Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

[DopplerWx]

the biggest thing we can take form this run is our energy was finally sampled and we saw a nice shift south on the first run of the 12z suite. would really like to see the gfs shift south here shortly but i fully expect some super amped lp over camden lol.

 

[weatherfide]

Watch that clipper behind this one. That strong 500mb low might just yank it down into the SE for round 2.

 

[Deleted member 609]

Sleet in Charlotte

 

[EmersonGA]

Sadly it changes to this next frame but it's a massive step.
View attachment 104938

I'm fine with it. Use enough QPF on snow early to make it less catastrophic with the ice. The sledding would be epic too.

 

[packfan98]

Crap! Warm Nose for most of us.

 

[malak05]

Holy Moly..... I-20 up to Northern Counties<Atlanta<All points East to Carolinas Crushed by Ice and then everyone thru AL into Georgia gets nailed with healthy 2-4 inches of snow as backside comes thru....That's lights out for half of GA

 

[RBR71]

Slowing down and starting to try to tilt at 69 seems like that's been the general area regardless

Yeah still sucks for us, we got a 4-6 hour window of frozen precip (at best) as it stands right now before we rain and rain and rain

 

[Nerman]

Not surprised Nam moving toward the Euro. This is back-end snow. I still lean to a snow, sleet, freezing rain, sleet, snow set-up that we've consistently seen on the Euro. This is for Atl - Cha.

 

[jrips27]

Backside

 

[DopplerWx]

that def band looks filthy.

 

[jrips27]

Ooooooooof

 

[Stephenb888]

Sleet in Charlotte
View attachment 104943

I don’t understand it’s finally went south like we wanted and it’s still ice around the 85 corridor. What’s it take to keep it snow!?

 

[Deleted member 609]

Even mountains look to have some mixing

 

[Ron Burgundy]

Euro like View attachment 104937

Serious qpf in the NW ATL burbs. That would be a major thump before we go to IP/ZR.

 

[ATLwxfan]

Bama getting NAM’d


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[Zander98al]

Crap! Warm Nose for most of us.

3 inches of snow in Birmingham!!! Let's go miller A!

 

[DopplerWx]

I don’t understand it’s finally went south like we wanted and it’s still ice around the 85 corridor. What’s it take to keep it snow!?

its the nam thermals at 84hr, dont sweat it. ill really start worrying about temps inside 48hrs. the takeaway should be our positive trends we saw this run esp in the first 54hrs or so.

 

[malak05]

It's snowing all thru AL down to Montgomery at 84 and still moving East

 

[RBR71]

I don’t understand it’s finally went south like we wanted and it’s still ice around the 85 corridor. What’s it take to keep it snow!?

South is great as long as it get off the coast before it turns north, we need it to not make that turn until over the ocean and then we would see more snow. That just isn't in the cards this time around

 

[accu35]

3km was headed in the right direction also

 

[NCSNOW]

Look how the Cad HP times better sliding into place and also futher south/ PA area

 

[Pup12]

oh boy!! We really starting to join in on the fun here in AL

 

[iGRXY]

its the nam thermals at 84hr, dont sweat it. ill really start worrying about temps inside 48hrs. the takeaway should be our positive trends we saw this run esp in the first 54hrs or so.

Especially the improved change with temps that occurred in the Nams temp wheelhouse of around and under Hr54

 

[Deleted member 609]

its the nam thermals at 84hr, dont sweat it. ill really start worrying about temps inside 48hrs. the takeaway should be our positive trends we saw this run esp in the first 54hrs or so.

I don't man. If I've learned anything, it doesn't matter what hour away it is. If the NAM shows warm nose, there will be one.

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

Holy Moly..... I-20 up to Northern Counties<Atlanta<All points East to Carolinas Crushed by Ice and then everyone thru AL into Georgia gets nailed with healthy 2-4 inches of snow as backside comes thru....That's lights out for half of GA

And, the backside snow isn't done with Georgia by 84 hours either. Cash me in!

 

[Shawn]

Not gonna take much more shifts like that for snow for a lot of areas.

 

[DopplerWx]

nam 3k at 60 fwiw

 

[jrips27]

Full loop

 

[Stephenb888]

Not gonna take much more shifts like that for snow for a lot of areas.

Unfortunately now that it’s sampled I bet it doesn’t change much from here.

 

[jjwxman]

Raging WAA on the NAM despite the more southern track. Not really surprising, but also it's in the 69-84 Hour time frame were talking about. I believe mixing is unavoidable, but I also think that as we get closer (if the track remains more south) the 40/85 corridor north and west may see more snow/sleet than frzr IMHO.

 

[RBR71]

Mercy look how far west those IP totals are getting, gonna cut down on snow accums big time (if correct)

 

[DopplerWx]

Unfortunately now that it’s sampled I bet it doesn’t change much from here.

we have seen plenty of massive changes before within 24 hrs, this is still 84hrs out.

 

[thunderwolf]

On the NAM, the high is moving east too quickly to keep the cold air entrenched with the amount of WAA expected ahead of the low which is why you are seeing freezing rain/sleet instead of snow.

 

[Arcc]

That track is classic across most of central MS, AL, GA if you want to see 2-5” on the backside with that track of the 500mb low.

 

[iGRXY]

I don't man. If I've learned anything, it doesn't matter what hour away it is. If the NAM shows warm nose, there will be one.

Taking the Nams temp profiles serious whether it shows warm or cold beyond really Hr48 is not a good idea lol

 

[ATLwxfan]

Pause for a minute and consider this: If this is closer to the ultimate solution then there was absolute validity to prioritizing what we saw on the global ensembles 48 hours ago. Just remember this when the next storm comes around.


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[NickyBGuarantee]

Full loopView attachment 104950

Sheesh doesn’t matter if we turn to all rain at some point. After already dropping .25-.5 inches of freezing rain on top of a healthy layer of sleet … rip power for most of central NC

 

[jrips27]

 

[snowplow]

Full loopView attachment 104950

Chattanooga sat in the perfect spot on that run! That's the definition of getting NAM'd!!

 

[WxGSO]

Favorable trend on the NAM for a board wide event. With the amount of dry air in the Carolinas, I would bet there would be a better front end snow than shown.