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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

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I imagine the NAM tapping into the Gulf is what is causing the mixing further NW. Look at all that warm air being pulled in at 850 mb
 
metwannabe said:
You'd be surprised how much ice it takes to really become a major outage issue, .25 minor issues, .5 or more before real problems start to surface. Verbatim it's borderline advisory/warning criteria across most of central NC.

edit: corridor between I-95 and US 1
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Not sure I'd call it borderline...maybe east of the Triangle. It's a combo of snow/sleet/fzrn. A 0.25" of fzrn can cause significant problems if the wind is moderate to strong which it will be.
 
cyclogent said:
very Feb 2014'ish on that run of the NAM. riding the line as the deform band sits and pivots overhead
but end of the NAM run isn't in its wheelhouse. gonna need to see the rest of the 12z suite to buy that
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If I remember correctly the NAM nailed that storm perfectly..
 
DopplerWx said:
its the nam thermals at 84hr, dont sweat it. ill really start worrying about temps inside 48hrs. the takeaway should be our positive trends we saw this run esp in the first 54hrs or so.
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I agree with you. Besides looking at the soundings I would take ZR output with a huge grain of salt. There’s some snow to start out there for southern and eastern portions of CLT metro, but then it’s mostly sleet until the end of the run. The other big take away is how just how much the end frame is taking on the look of a classic Miller A with an inland track… a big change from the Miller B and hybrid looks we saw for a couple days. Unfortunately for the folks to the east it looks to still have an inland track. The good news about a Miller A, at least for the Carolinas is that typically there is a smaller area of ZR, though you can certainly see a wide area of heavy sleet
 
This like all winter storms in the SE is particularly difficult. the track of the storm and the strength of the storm are the first thing to look at. But the "in my back yard " details, the anatomy of the storm is maybe more important. The intricate details can bring jubilation to the unexpecting, and weeping and gnashing of teeth to the "bet the farm it's gonna be a big one" back yards.
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WxGSO said:
Not sure I'd call it borderline...maybe east of the Triangle. It's a combo of snow/sleet/fzrn. A 0.25" of fzrn can cause significant problems if the wind is moderate to strong which it will be.
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Yeah I edited it to clarify I was thinking I-95 to US 1 corridor, eastern edge of that less likely issues, west side of that more... but I agree with you and kinda splitting hairs on locations/zones etc. Also I was trying to temper young Nicky's excitement lol
 
For those new here it’s common for 1) pre-event snow to break out before the main event 2) NAM is a short range model that oftens trends colder leading up the event 3) snow maps are bad when it’s mixing so are ice maps it takes a lot of human input to create boundaries on who sees what and how much 4) backside snows are rare and almost never survive crossing the mtns due to downsloping winds 5) there’s more but I enjoy watching people react
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Nam 12km sucks with front end snow in cad setups around here, I’m willing to bet hrrr shows it good
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I really think you’re right…just looking at the overall set up, it just screams to have a decent size area of snow developing out ahead of the system across the SC Upstate, all of CLT metro and then north up to I-40 in the Piedmont. Seen this many times over the years
 
metwannabe said:
You'd be surprised how much ice it takes to really become a major outage issue, .25 minor issues, .5 or more before real problems start to surface. Verbatim it's borderline advisory/warning criteria across most of central NC.

edit: corridor between I-95 and US 1
Click to expand...
True my worry is that we haven’t dealt with that much ice in quite a while we’ve only gotten .1-.15 events for as long as I can remember in Apex .. any trees weakened (and of course add in the wind factor) from last wind events will be vulnerable
 
If the NAM is to be believed then in Georgia your getting hit with a major freezing rain then getting anywhere between 2-6 inches depending on location on the backside snow on top of that... That's power outages glory and frozen everything insulted by snow nice... :/
Plus Temps on Monday high is 40 partly cloudy and that doesn't factor in the snow etc on ground which in these events we always know causes temps to never verify on the high. Tuesday will have similar issues all be it sunnier but your probably not getting very far around parts of GA to Wednesday to be honest.
 
Chazwin said:
I really think you’re right…just looking at the overall set up, it just screams to have a decent size area of snow developing out ahead of the system across the SC Upstate, all of CLT metro and then north up to I-40 in the Piedmont. Seen this many times over the years
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There’s a difference between the initial snow thump and the pre event..some modeling (past gfs runs) suggested a band of snow coming out of Kentucky and threatening Boone to Winston Salem and southern Virginia 6-12 hours before the precip even starts in the CLT metro.
 
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