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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

Those temps aren't going to do it on the ICON
icon_T2m_us_33.png

Last run we had this
icon_T2m_us_35.png
 
ICON is a step in the right direction. It closes off but just too late and a little too far north. Luckily the trend has continued to be ULL slowly shifting southwest with track the closer we get to verification.
 
The icon temps don’t add up though. The amount of CAD temps will be colder then what Icon shows


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Icon did however trend to a weaker 50/50. Granted this model is really bad but it has continued the less consolidated wave trend.
 
Catching up, not great to have the Euro overamped and the gfs so amped it straight Miller B'd straight to crap. Ensembles look great, so that dichotomy is unnerving, especially as the gfs and euro ops continue to trend worse every run imo. Hoping the ensemble means, especially at this lead hold serve and the ops flatten a bit and get reasonable, start to match up. Tonight's runs need to stop the op bleeding stat.
 
I was looking at the 18z the whole time lololol. 0z definitely closed off and took an awful track for everybody but the mountains
 
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