iGRXY
Member
Maybe a hair SW.
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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Maybe a hair SW.
iGRXY
Member
It is further SE with the surface low at 66
iGRXY
Member
The GFS resolution issue, especially in the short range is really limiting it with the expansion of the CAD. The precip fields are pretty much useless
LovingGulfLows
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500mb low is definitely further southwest compared to the previous run.
No real changes on the GFS other than it's slightly slower.
Snowflowxxl
Member
GFS is gonna go down with the ship with its solution. It’s been consistent
Not much freezing rain on the GFS. Mostly snow
iGRXY
Member
WB shows sleet at 75 and 78 but definitely looks like snow based on 850s. Pivotal also showing more snow at those timeframes.
GFS looks more like the Icon in terms of affects for the RDU area. Most precip now looks to fall as frozen/freezing before a brief jump above freezing.
Giddy up
Stormlover
Member
GFS , no it's not been consistent, it's moving back south again after moving north
Definitely a significant winter storm in central NC, IP/zr/sn/rn... all of it
GFS looks a bit colder for much of the NC piedmont, most of the NC piedmont gets a decent front end thump with temperatures in the mid-upper 20s.
iGRXY
Member
This is almost entirely from the back end band as the GFS is not picking up on the FGEN or front end portion of the storm that would likely be more snow in the upstate and really everyone south of 40. It starts off as snow for the Triad but quickly switches over as well.
GFS , no it's not been consistent, it's moving back south again after moving north
21 inches near Clarksville, lol, geebus
cash me out with 9 inches lol
12z GFS is a small improvement on overall totals for Snow compared to 6z slowly coming further SE... I don't think it has a clue what it's doing on front end though I believe the NAM early freezing rain solution a little more then GFS
iGRXY
Member
The majority of that rain in the upstate is likely going to either be snow or ICEDefinitely a significant winter storm in central NC, IP/zr/sn/rn... all of it
TigerSnow
Member
Ron Burgundy
Member
Putting down more SN to the west in MS and northern AL.
BHS1975
Member
Hmm CAD coming in stronger on models as we come closer to go time .. we’re have I seen this before
GFS is just the slightest bit colder 7am Sunday for CAD regions
Yeah, I tend to honestly expect IP to be the dominant P-type across Central NC with this storm at this point.
As a side note, the 12z ICON’s track is pretty beautiful, especially for the western Piedmont and foothills. Definitely rooting for that (or even further east, but beggars can’t be choosers haha).
I definitely think that the convection-based models will have a better handle on the 850s. I am buying the NAM/RGEM camp with less snow further east at this point. It further will be interesting to see the 3k models come into range.
Huffman's thoughts as of now haven't changed
Cadi40
Member
For areas further west such as Charlotte and the 85 corridor, are we looking at staying below freezing for the duration of the event? If so then we likely have a huge ice storm on our hands.
Looks like it's sitting right along the 0c 850 line. Either going to rip fatties or face stinging sleet
that is one long trail of heavy snow. you can tell where the trough axis is as well, roughly the I-65 corridor
sounding for clt, ip but so close to a snow sounding it hurts.
SnowNiner
Member
Well, was enthused about the ticking further south and east on the models today, love the NAM low location and keeping the low pressure closer to the gulf, digging. Pretty classic looking. The thermal profiles suck though with nothing but sleet/freezing rain through most of the Carolinas. Hope that's wrong with snow more on the northern edge.
TigerSnow
Member
Looks like the typical I-85 special right there. We should know that's how most storms around here go. A few miles up the road and its snow.
If someone in this area can find a way to stay all or mostly snow there’s going to be some big boy totals. Keep seeing lollipops in this area. NAM was concerning with temp profiles but from what I can remember in the past it’s a little amp happy towards the end of its range. 
ForsythSnow
Moderator
The GFS still seems to be struggling with the CAD. When FFC is even saying that it's more likely a stronger CAD is possible in their AFD then it is either evident that it is underdoing the CAD or we're in for a really cold rain. I lean more toward the GFS failing at CAD. More important to focus on its track I'd say.
I’m leaning towards us staying below freezing for the duration, possibly the upper 20s, but from what I’m seeing on these soundings, I really think that after that front end thump of snow, we’re gonna see sleet dominate with some ZR until whatever snow the backside brings. I wouldn’t be at all suprised at all if the corridor from eastern CLT metro up to the west side of the triangle has a solid concrete glacier on the ground by Sunday evening