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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

gfs ens showing more members clustered se of the op.
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ForsythSnow said:
The GFS still seems to be struggling with the CAD. When FFC is even saying that it's more likely a stronger CAD is possible in their AFD then it is either evident that it is underdoing the CAD or we're in for a really cold rain. I lean more toward the GFS failing at CAD. More important to focus on its track I'd say.
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LP track was further S & E, which may have been a slight nod to the NAM, but it did appear to struggle with the CAD
 
Chazwin said:
I’m leaning towards us staying below freezing for the duration, possibly the upper 20s, but from what I’m seeing on these soundings, I really think that after that front end thump of snow, we’re gonna see sleet dominate with some ZR until whatever snow the backside brings. I wouldn’t be at all suprised at all if the corridor from eastern CLT metro up to the west side of the triangle has a solid concrete glacier on the ground by Sunday evening
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I am just north of CLT in Huntersville. Looks to be a lot of IP or ZR around me based on the track and some soundings. Concerned for sure about losing power. If we can get that low to track a little further south or east it might change us to some more snow.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
If someone in this area can find a way to stay all or mostly snow there’s going to be some big boy totals. Keep seeing lollipops in this area. NAM was concerning with temp profiles but from what I can remember in the past it’s a little amp happy towards the end of its range. View attachment 104985
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Hush!!!! Lol hopefully the nam trends continue and can keep that warm nose at bay. We might make a run for it. I'm sweating bullets.
 
ForsythSnow said:
The GFS still seems to be struggling with the CAD. When FFC is even saying that it's more likely a stronger CAD is possible in their AFD then it is either evident that it is underdoing the CAD or we're in for a really cold rain. I lean more toward the GFS failing at CAD. More important to focus on its track I'd say.
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I honestly don't put a lot of stock into what the GFS says in this range. Especially, when it comes to the clown maps and soundings. They are always way overhyped and hardly ever come to fruition. Can't count on both hands how often they are wrong than right. I also have a hard time believing that Nashville ends up with a foot of snow while some of the sweet spots in NC end up with half that, especially during a CAD event like this. I am much more into short-range modeling at this juncture. Just my two cents though.
 
metwannabe said:
Thru 72 I'd say once again the ensembles overall have a colder look, with more frozen precip (edit: colder than the Op still not the best track for central NC)
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I was burned by the GEFS back in Jan 2016 so I don't know....most of those panels look amazing for my backyard, but I'm always going to be suspect of GFS ensemble members.
 
wxdaniel said:
I disagree. Climatology speaking he is on point.


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Models are showing a lot more than that and that is with no FGEN. That is low compared to what we have seen. Climo also says colder temps with CAD and longer duration. I am definitely willing to bet we see this likely increase. Especially in the mountains.
 
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Anybody order some FGEN???
 

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Stephenb888 said:
I know but I just thought this was “one of strongest CAD we’ve seen in a while” and now it doesn’t look like it.
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He is showing a preliminary forecast of .25-.5" of ice in your area. I would say that would imply strong CAD.
 
metwannabe said:
Thru 72 I'd say once again the ensembles overall have a colder look, with more frozen precip (edit: colder than the Op still not the best track for central NC)
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Those ensemble members really do look like a more classic Miller A/B hybrid distribution. So much better than the op. If the wave digs decently closer to gulf and transfers decently closer to the coast, I'm not sure why we wouldn't have distributions closer to those shown. 85 being the dividing line between snow....and then sleet/freezing rain as shown. Some mixing sure, but how cold this CAD is supposed to be, historically I'd expect more snow on the NW side of the 850 low. But what do I know...lol.
 
Looks like Canadian gonna pop off the coast of the Savannah area too. But I don't have those short of frames, so not sure.
 
TigerSnow said:
I am just north of CLT in Huntersville. Looks to be a lot of IP or ZR around me based on the track and some soundings. Concerned for sure about losing power. If we can get that low to track a little further south or east it might change us to some more snow.
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I’m just saying this based on typical Miller A climo, since that’s what the clear trend is.… I really don’t think you’re going to have a huge ice accrual up you way. Some ZR mixed in at times yes, but nothing to cause widespread damage. Typically the area of major ZR in a Miller A in the Carolinas is in a much more narrow area than what is being depicted on these ZR accumulation maps, and I see that setting up close to the Hwy 1 corridor . You typically will see a much wider area of sleet dominate, and there can be a lot of it.
 
LovingGulfLows said:
I was burned by the GEFS back in Jan 2016 so I don't know....most of those panels look amazing for my backyard, but I'm always going to be suspect of GFS ensemble members.
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I've had ensembles all show me over 8 inches 24 hours before an event. I got a trace.
 
This is looking more & more like the typical screw job for South Charlotte. In such a prolonged snow drought, yet a few miles North & West (even within the same county) they have snow cover, year after year.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Me too, man. I don’t want one grain of sleet. It’s close!
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I’ve spoken to a few locals and they are saying lake toxaway could be one of the jackpot spots. One said if it were to stay all snow that we could see 18” safely. Don’t think I’d know what to do if I saw a foot of snow. Seems to be a great spot for lift and max QPF. I’m ready to get on the road!
 
Chazwin said:
I’m just saying this based on typical Miller A climo, since that’s what the clear trend is.… I really don’t think you’re going to have a huge ice accrual up you way. Some ZR mixed in at times yes, but nothing to cause widespread damage. Typically the area of major ZR in a Miller A in the Carolinas is in a much more narrow area than what is being depicted on these ZR accumulation maps, and I see that setting up close to the Hwy 1 corridor . You typically will see a much wider area of sleet dominate, and there can be a lot of it.
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I'm in ballantyne, and I'm sure my weather will be similar to yours.. do you think we're going to have crippling freezing rain?
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
If someone in this area can find a way to stay all or mostly snow there’s going to be some big boy totals. Keep seeing lollipops in this area. NAM was concerning with temp profiles but from what I can remember in the past it’s a little amp happy towards the end of its range. View attachment 104985
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I live in that circle. I’ll keep a running report for y’all.
 
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