Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

[Wild Weather Monger]

The NW trend has continued for the past four runs. The core of the upper low has gone from Savanah to WSW of Nashville.

The question is does this NW trend end now. Rarely does right up until verification.

 

[accu35]

if we play our cards right then places west of the app could see some decent wraparound

 

[DopplerWx]

I mean this track

 

[jrips27]

24 hours ago to now. Hate this model lol

 

[iGRXY]

GEFS has more confluence and more CAD through 84 so far

 

[carolinachaos]

The way the low is tracking it’s as if there is a SER


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[BirdManDoomW]

If it transfers and cuts near Oklahoma what are the chances of that

 

[accu35]

Once again 0z gefs is south of its operational.

 

[BirdManDoomW]

^ that snow map looks very climo even if we think it’s wrong it may be more realistic

 

[Benholio]

If the GFS solution is crap, at least it is consistent crap. Here's 18z vs 0z

 

[NCSNOW]

Has to be a helluva cold air dam to hold off that beast

It had it parked in the vip spot NY state at 1035 when precip started. HP pulled into the parking spot right at the right time. Surface temp 21 and pouring rn, sleet

 

[Rain Cold]

Once again 0z gefs is south of its operational.

The question you want to answer for this particular run is how does the evolution of this mean compare to the evolution of the last mean?

 

[NWMSGuy]

 

[BirdManDoomW]

Not discarding that run,it even has the 1-3” snow northern Charlotte to near nothing closer to the city like I mentioned earlier Today. Ice always lowers totals but still sig. storm

 

[Brent]

As bad as it is back east I'm actually trending towards accumulating snow on the GFS ?? our weekend was sunny and dry

 

[iGRXY]

GEFS is less amped again lololol

 

[NWMSGuy]

 

[Benholio]

Interesting, there must be some faster ensemble members, as the operational is dry in GA and east half of TN at the same point

 

[TheBatman]

View attachment 104195
The 2 highs to the north needs to be strong around 1035mb in order to help The I-20 group.

 

[NWMSGuy]