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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

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This is what happens when Greg Fishel isn't there to KO output like this. :rolleyes:
 
We really may not know how far inland the coastal front will make it until it's now casting time. My experience says it shouldn't make it as far as many models show but one could also argue that with all those above normal ssts off shore this low could really wrap up further inland.
 
iGRXY said:
GFS:
View attachment 105005
Euro:
View attachment 105006
CMC:
View attachment 105007
ICON:
View attachment 105008
This is the kuchera totals which factors in mixing issues and ratios from the most recent runs. even shaving off amounts due to sleet and ice and it's still more than 1-2" and 2-4" for a lot of people.
Click to expand...
For the upstate peeps, notice that every one of these maps has a finger of lower amounts into Pickens County, with the one on the GFS being very pronounced. This is interesting as the finger of mins usually expands West to include Oconee, and often, extreme NE GA. In this case I am not exaclty sure why we see such a specific finger over only Pickens, but my guess is this may point to the effect elevation is having here. Even a few hundred feet could make a significant difference AND this is also the usual struggle line between better CAD push and less. I don't remember seeing it so pronounced on so many models for such a small area before but I don't think it can be ignored unfortunately. The other thing to note is that the heavier blue to purple band is a little further south of the 85 corridor itself, which is a good sign, especailly as many of the models continue to press this heavier band a few miles south each run. We really need to pay attention to the short term models tomorrow.
 
Iceagewhereartthou said:
For the upstate peeps, notice that every one of these maps has a finger of lower amounts into Pickens County, with the one on the GFS being very pronounced. This is interesting as the finger of mins usually expands West to include Oconee, and often, extreme NE GA. In this case I am not exaclty sure why we see such a specific finger over only Pickens, but my guess is this may point to the effect elevation is having here. Even a few hundred feet could make a significant difference AND this is also the usual struggle line between better CAD push and less. I don't remember seeing it so pronounced on so many models for such a small area before but I don't think it can be ignored unfortunately. The other thing to note is that the heavier blue to purple band is a little further south of the 85 corridor itself, which is a good sign, especailly as many of the models continue to press this heavier band a few miles south each run. We really need to pay attention to the short term models tomorrow.
Click to expand...
Upstate lake valley of Western Pickens Eastern Oconee is less than other locations often
 
Iceagewhereartthou said:
For the upstate peeps, notice that every one of these maps has a finger of lower amounts into Pickens County, with the one on the GFS being very pronounced. This is interesting as the finger of mins usually expands West to include Oconee, and often, extreme NE GA. In this case I am not exaclty sure why we see such a specific finger over only Pickens, but my guess is this may point to the effect elevation is having here. Even a few hundred feet could make a significant difference AND this is also the usual struggle line between better CAD push and less. I don't remember seeing it so pronounced on so many models for such a small area before but I don't think it can be ignored unfortunately. The other thing to note is that the heavier blue to purple band is a little further south of the 85 corridor itself, which is a good sign, especailly as many of the models continue to press this heavier band a few miles south each run. We really need to pay attention to the short term models tomorrow.
Click to expand...
It’s showing that bc those models have surface temps above 32 when the precip first arrives late Saturday night. So it’s the old boundary layer(lower elevation, lakes, etc) screw job killing totals for an hour or two before we go below 32 and that quits mattering for everyone. It’s likely over done, imo. I don’t think we lose too much snow to melting once it starts.
 
ryan1234 said:
Can we please keep these posts related to this storm and not trips that people have planned to the mountains this weekend? The answer is common sense. Come on, folks.
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I 100% agree, but there is also an element of these people putting their life in danger with a storm like this traveling to an unknown area with the conditions we are about to see from Asheville to Boone and surrounding areas. It's a stretch, but the questions being asked could save a life, and there should be an outlet for them somewhere if not here.
 
Iceagewhereartthou said:
For the upstate peeps, notice that every one of these maps has a finger of lower amounts into Pickens County, with the one on the GFS being very pronounced. This is interesting as the finger of mins usually expands West to include Oconee, and often, extreme NE GA. In this case I am not exaclty sure why we see such a specific finger over only Pickens, but my guess is this may point to the effect elevation is having here. Even a few hundred feet could make a significant difference AND this is also the usual struggle line between better CAD push and less. I don't remember seeing it so pronounced on so many models for such a small area before but I don't think it can be ignored unfortunately. The other thing to note is that the heavier blue to purple band is a little further south of the 85 corridor itself, which is a good sign, especailly as many of the models continue to press this heavier band a few miles south each run. We really need to pay attention to the short term models tomorrow.
Click to expand...

That sounds like the Oconee County Snow Hole. I have no idea why it happens or the reasoning behind it, but it does that in a lot of snowstorms.


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BufordWX said:
Do we think we will probably start getting winter storm watches issued in the next 24 hours? I would assume we will start seeing them for N GA by tomorrow morning or afternoon at the latest given we would be within about 48 hours of the event kicking off by then.
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Have heard through the grapevine we see some winter products get issued in the Carolinas later today
 
njbarrineau said:
That sounds like the Oconee County Snow Hole. I have no idea why it happens or the reasoning behind it, but it does that in a lot of snowstorms.


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Click to expand...
Some one post a couple of years ago that it has to do with the Savannah River and the warm air that flows up from the Atlantic. I can't remember who posted it but they seem to be pretty spot on.
 
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