Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

[KyloG]

UK and GEFS almost on top of each other. ?‍

Though, I don’t think this is done moving NW. 4-5 more days still.

 

[KyloG]

There's support for a Miller B here but nothing asv extreme as the opView attachment 104210
View attachment 104211

GFS has always been really bad with transfers. Though that’s probably weenie wish casting on my past.

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

Seeing the GEFS snow mean this run tells me much less spread. Starting to get a consensus.

 

[superjames1992]

I don’t think a transfer to the coastal plain makes much sense like the GFS depicts (transfer would be offshore or right on it, IMO), though it could still be on the mark with the warmer thermals still.

 

[Metwannabe]

Keep hope alive

 

[iGRXY]

Miller B support but the progression is much more believable with some of the individual members. You still get a Miller B but it doesn’t penetrate through the CAD dome before transfer to … shocker … off the coast instead of 95 corridor … which means there was still a ton of members with mostly snow solutions.

 

[Chandler]

How in the heck. It actually did better for North Alabama. There must be one skewed member in there.

There's a couple decent hits

 

[Stormsfury]

The OP GFS doing GFS things again WRT to the first SFC low... some things never change with whatever version of it that's run.

Why in the hell does it take the first SFC low on a cyclonic trip directly to the mid/upper low and even ends up NW of its upper parent (*cough* BS *cough*) .. it shouldn't... but as GFS is as GFS does... already with that, it snowball effects and basically derails the rest of its prog...

cold air damming is extremely stubborn to scour, especially when it's reinforced with precip, latent heat aloft or not...

The parent high appears to be more or less in a really primed spot to stay entrenched for quite awhile ahead of the storm and the SFC low will still likely follow the wedge boundary... still be it, may Miller B but SFC lows don't bust through entrenched wedges quite so readily and the GFS is notorious for scouring wedges out too quickly..

 

[Weatherlover92]

00z CMC it’s definitely slower, further west and more positive tilted vs 12z was at this point.

 

[TheBatman]

Canadian Looks almost like the GFS. Dang!!?

 

[BirdManDoomW]

After reviewing 0z I’m ready to book my travel to Mount Rogers, Virginia. More ensemble support there and displayed away from the warm nose that will impact all of North Carolina save 2-3 mountain counties. This setup would not favor south-west NC imo although it’s still solid warning criteria there.

 

[accu35]

How in the heck. It actually did better for North Alabama. There must be one skewed member in there.

Even if this takes a track up through TN, Alabama still does well especially if you have a ULL wraparound swinging south before shooting north. I think east of the apps would hurt if the gfs OP verified. That’s my 2 cents tho.

 

[Snowman63]

CMS coming around...

 

[iGRXY]

Some members have ice along the 85 corridor here and there but the vast majority is majority snow. About half and half split between ice and snow for the midlands.

 

[whatalife]

 

[Weatherlover92]

Getting icy.? Really don’t like this.

 

[NCSNOW]

 

[TheBatman]

Canadian stills transfer low at the last second.

 

[KyloG]

Slowing down of the ull has been a killer and this will probably continue for a couple more days.

 

[Chandler]

UK!! hah. Although its north from its 12z run