Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

[Iceagewhereartthou]

Bruh

Where did that high come from off of Mexico coast?


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So that Mexico high jumped out to me as well. I think that last frame, 0z run, could be showing the low before the transfer, whereas the previous frames are showing it after. If that's the case it has slowed a bit. It also appears the high over Mexico, which has formed and expanded, is helping push our low a bit North, along with a slightly weaker pressing high over NE. I don't know if that high is showing up on other models or not. You'll notice it's also pushed the low over N Mexico North as well.
Another feature is the Canadian low has rotated clockwise around our NE high and our storm low has followed suit. With those peices the output makes more sense, but is it right?

 

[cyclogent]

well...the GFS gets a lot of hate and it's not the best model, but have to admit this trend is completely solid...slowing down

 

[jrips27]

Euro is running. This one feels important. Good luck everyone

 

[Jan88]

When is the next model running? About to call it a night.


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Euro 1am est

 

[jrips27]

Looks a touch slower than the 12z thru 60

 

[deltadog03]

smidgen SW and slower a very slow tad...all in all so far about the same as 12z run *hr 84*

 

[TheBatman]

smidgen SW and slower a very slow tad...all in all so far about the same as 12z run *hr 84*

 

[Snowflowxxl]

 

[TheBatman]

Little north @ 90

 

[BufordWX]

 

[deltadog03]

HR96, slightly SW vs 12z and not as tilted Neutral yet either

 

[Chandler]

Very similar to its 12z run

 

[TheBatman]

 

[Snowflowxxl]

850s are much warmer here. The terrible trends continue

 

[BufordWX]

 

[deltadog03]

not going to be nearly as good of a run for some in GA. Looks like gonna Miller B now....EHHHH

 

[Stormlover]

very odd

 

[Chandler]

at 500 mb can see a clear N move all around from 12z

 

[deltadog03]

........................waives bye bye to my North....Well ----....I figured it was coming *MBY* but worse run for most

better for TN and WNC this run from what I can tell. Nice hit for NGA into Upstate, but if it trends any further north....it will be an icy mess to rain for sure. Bama this run was def. worse.

 

[Meteorologist1999]

Based in current guidance I'd say with the CAD as strong as it is we're getting hit regardless. But I'd say just south of 85 would be more Sleet than anything. Once you get down close to lower upstate/northern midlands more zr for sure. North of 85 still may do quite well.

View attachment 104264

Still very bad ice storm for midlands of SC. I