• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

Stormsfury said:
The OP GFS doing GFS things again WRT to the first SFC low... some things never change with whatever version of it that's run.

Why in the hell does it take the first SFC low on a cyclonic trip directly to the mid/upper low and even ends up NW of its upper parent (*cough* BS *cough*) .. it shouldn't... but as GFS is as GFS does... already with that, it snowball effects and basically derails the rest of its prog...

cold air damming is extremely stubborn to scour, especially when it's reinforced with precip, latent heat aloft or not...

The parent high appears to be more or less in a really primed spot to stay entrenched for quite awhile ahead of the storm and the SFC low will still likely follow the wedge boundary... still be it, may Miller B but SFC lows don't bust through entrenched wedges quite so readily and the GFS is notorious for scouring wedges out too quickly..
Click to expand...
Bingo. We have some Miller B members on the GEFS but they make it as far as central and northern Alabama before transferring to the coast. Which is actually a believable setup. The GFS OP just isn’t believable no matter how you slice it. The GEFS showed a clear picture of either a quick transfer without it pushing through the CAD or the southern members pivot around the CAD dome to the coast.
 
UKMET has come north, but not nearly as amped or north as the rest of this evening's model suites. EMCF to follow its lead?
sn10_acc.conus.png
 
Folks the UKMET was the trailer here. The lead is the GFS ops albeit probably not fully correct on that last run. It's driving the change and movement for all the others it seems so far. Has it stopped yet? I'm not so sure.
 
Some are asking for details on where to select their booking for this weekend. Here’s the calm dry wind during the height of the storm flexing its muscles against the warm nose. Likely all heavy snow in the white shaded dead zone. Possible spots to pick would be Beech Mountain, Sparta, western Surry/Wilkes and select areas south into the GSP forecast area albeit narrow near the mountains. ? Oh and Virginia. 26062433-494E-4BAC-BE3F-FEE75C151BA8.jpeg
 
CaryWx said:
Folks the UKMET was the trailer here. The lead is the GFS ops albeit probably not fully correct on that last run. It's driving the change and movement for all the others it seems so far. Has it stopped yet? I'm not so sure.
Click to expand...
Not driving the Euro. And the GFS is nothing to put your faith in as leading the others.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top