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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

very odd
1642388400-iUNPgjWD2So.png
This is the setup in a Snow back in 2017. Snow on the ground from West Texas until Al/MS state line, then nothing, then snow on the ground from Georgia to Carolinas. I quit watching boards for 2 years because of that one. Hope that’s not where we’re headed again
 
not going to be nearly as good of a run for some in GA. Looks like gonna Miller B now....EHHHH
It does look like a Miller B, but this solution at least makes sense given that the GFS made absolutely none. The EURO transfers to a new low very close to Savannah… not right into the CAD like the GFS did. One thing other to note is that this was not as an amped a solution as the 12z Euro as the warmer 850s looked to be the result of a weaker high to the north… something to watch for future runs. Verbatim this solution would give a heavy front end thump of snow from NE GA to Upstate SC, to central NC and points north before turning into IP/ZR and then back to snow on the backside…. Very similar to what the UK showed.
 
How is this run a disaster?
This run was absolutely not a disaster, but I’ve not expected this to be an all snow event outside the mountains. The biggest takeaway from it for me is that this wasn’t as amped up as the 12z Euro and not even close to what the GFS just showed. I’m not saying the less amped up is the start of a trend, but it’s definitely something to watch for.
 
Thinking a more impactful front thump .. but when you change over it’s ice from then on .. they are notorious for being very efficient (front end thumps)but this is going to be another game of us dodging the mix line
 
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0z Euro was actually ok, if it was a tad amped up more, then it would have been great. Little north from last run but south of gfs.
 
I’d expect quite a bit of NW members with this look C9F1A817-D18F-402B-A952-8378E372191B.png
 
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