NCWeatherhound
Member
If Eric is right, and the CMC verifies, we won't be hearing from folks in Columbia until the spring thaw. 
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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Showmeyourtds
Member
Did it look like this previously? Seems like it's a bit more east with the energy ?
iGRXY
Member
Consolidating at 42 and maybe a hair further SE
Jrips2710
Member
Stronger and a tick north at 45. Not sure where this one is going
iGRXY
Member
A little further north now at 45.
ryanardo
Member
If that verifies, pray it won't, not even half that accumulation, my house will cease to exist for to the trees in my backyard, and be without power for weeks
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
NAM definitely more amped and a bit north versus 12Z.
The maps are trash. We have had better setups on the blue ridge and it’s almost insanely impossible to go over half an inch of ice. I’ve seen limited 0.90” icing reports but they require low precip rates, in this case South Carolina is just too heavy.
Jrips2710
Member
Not a great trend
iGRXY
Member
NAM initially started more sheared and faster but consolidated greatly over TX and OK
Snowflowxxl
Member
This run is going to be warmer, at least aloft
I can still see warning criteria ice below Charlotte with 0.25” to 0.33” which would still be bad. Very bad.
Snowflowxxl
Member
Warmer at surface and a lot at 48
iGRXY
Member
Yeah this run isn't going to be all that great.
Jrips2710
Member
I believe we're going to see some changes on this run. Hopefully just a blip
ATLwxfan
Member
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
South trend brakes have been applied
18z nam and 12z euro are basically on top of each other
Nerman
Member
NAM is faster and further North of the HRRR at 48
Snowflowxxl
Member
One run is not a trend either way btw. These are just movements along the way
Don’t like this nam run
alfoman
Member
Our high in Canada looks weaker by a few mb, which is likely allowing our system to veer farther north. This run will be a step back from 12z without a doubt
Snowflowxxl
Member
ATL was below freezing at this time at 12z. This run is gonna look like the 6z
ChattaVOL
Member
not greatiGRXY
Member
NAM transfer to the gulf coast at 54
iGRXY
Member
This run is quite a bit faster but came in more amped. Not sure I am buying that one.
ATLwxfan
Member
Should help with temps but still gonna be warm up front. Lower totals on the horizon
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I like these fingers that extend out ahead of the main show
upstate sleet at 60, not showing the front end snow like earlier.
MichaelJ
Member
The NAM is going to put a big dent in most of our dreams on this storm. With the parent high slightly weakening, the NAM may follow the EURO track pretty closely.
much warmer at 63, sleetfest and no initial snow for upstate thru clt.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Agree. Starting to see model consensus now, as you should 48-60 hours out. NAM looks like the GFS too.
western nc plenty of snow at 66 but ice from cola north.
Showmeyourtds
Member
Well this is different. Getting a snow sounding @ 60 hrs with a temp of 37. Something's off.
Nam was weaker with the ridging over the top and the wave in the lakes allowing the wave to bundle and close earlier. Minor changes that go a long way down steam but could easily revert back at 0z with new soundings
Snowflowxxl
Member
ATL still isn’t below freezing at 63, only going to get backside frozen on this run.
WXinCanton
Member
ATLwxfan
Member
Pretty robust on the back end. Some high rates potentially into Mississippi
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No major surprises it’s a nail in the wall now. Snow west of 77 and damaging ice east. Mix of both near Mooresville to Yadkinville NC.