Couple that with the fact that it will help lock in CAD and further cool the column is important with this.I’m honestly thinking there’s gonna be more front end snow then shown.
First off the NAM has WAA cranking at hour 60 but no precip, WAA ofc is a forcing agent itself. I’m willing to be the nam is to dry, even with the big sfc/low level dry layer, the nam typically poorly shows dynamical cooling with large dry layers as I’ve seen several times and just rushes in warm noses while basically discounting dynamical cooling. if there’s one thing that overperforms in these amped up Miller B setups, it’s front end snow, this especially applies to CLT and NW.
That's the 12z.And still going too...
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Yeah, the NAM is a major winter storm for many of us, it just isn’t a lot of snow outside the mountains. But after recent years, a couple inches of sleet in the 20s wouldn’t be too terrible…at least I can sled in itMost still found a way to get NAMED.
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Yes it was much faster. The Euro was a little stronger on the 12z and it resulted on a more potent thump on the front end. Pros and cons to almost every scenario now.I know that run of the NAM was much warmer than the 12Z run, but it was also much faster than the 12Z run. Brought the LP up the NC Coastal Plain instead of through the Triangle.
Happens every time lol, that marginal setup last early February Iin SC for ex the NAMS rushed in a warm nose and discounted dynamical cooling and just had IP, while the HRRR showed snow associated with the dynamical cooling, I’d be worried if the HRRR sucks through hour 36Couple that with the fact that it will help lock in CAD and further cool the column is important with this.
Most aggressive map I’ve ever seen from them, in my entire life! ?
This. We’re not even in the best range of the NAM yet LOLI just wanna say the amount of confirmation bias i’ve seen here the past couple of days is insane.
NAM has one good run at 12z: “this is the start of a trend, new obs lock it in, trust the thermals” etc.
NAM at 18z: “i don’t buy it, NAM thermals bad this far out, too amped” etc.
It’s a southeastern snow storm folks there’s gonna be run-to-run variability with each suite. The globals and their ensembles are in relatively good agreement currently, while short range CAMs are just barely in range.
Clearly is has been a loooong time since most folks here have had a good snow haha.
They have models and data that we have no clue about. They definitely know what they're doing and they are ULTRA conservative.i'll be shocked if clt metro sees 4-6" tbh. 1-2" of sleet sure but not snow.
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That storm was a huge disappointment. Still bitter about it today...
At this point of completely striking out the past few winters I would be happy with a sleet fest. Just keep the ice away... Snow>Sleet>Rain>Icethis one reminds me of that godawful jan 2018 storm in raleigh where we had about 12hrs of heavy sleet and no snow.
It's been four years for me. Jan 2018 in Raleigh. In Asheville atm, I'm excited but cautious (because of what happened in Asheville in December of 2018)I just wanna say the amount of confirmation bias i’ve seen here the past couple of days is insane.
NAM has one good run at 12z: “this is the start of a trend, new obs lock it in, trust the thermals” etc.
NAM at 18z: “i don’t buy it, NAM thermals bad this far out, too amped” etc.
It’s a southeastern snow storm folks there’s gonna be run-to-run variability with each suite. The globals and their ensembles are in relatively good agreement currently, while short range CAMs are just barely in range.
Clearly is has been a loooong time since most folks here have had a good snow haha.
Y’all need to remember how inconsistent the NAM was at this range for last system. Model was jumping around like crazy.This. We’re not even in the best range of the NAM yet LOL
The zr shield definitely expanded east more with warning criteria very close to the coastal plains nowFor people in central NC it’s certainly interesting the NAM kept the low east and there for we went from 28 to 32 to then 36 as we peaked there. That wedge gets any more staying power or that low is slightly further East when it makes that move up the coast .. there will be a defined area that stays below freezing and depicting that will be hard at this stage
The upper features are nearly in lock-step with the NAM @69ICON is warmer and very much north
Yes pleaseThis is what I want to see .. backside .. something ??View attachment 105102
i'll be shocked if clt metro sees 4-6" tbh. 1-2" of sleet sure but not snow.
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Yes, they have computer models and data that the public isn't available to have.Does gsp has data that we don’t know about this storm and that’s how they come out with there snowfall totals
With that track backend snow will not make it into the upstate, it will curl up the spine of the apps and mtns of NC. Sometimes you can get cyclogenesis snow to form in the NC piedmont for a last gasp but that apps track probably won't deliver. Hopefully this run is bonkers. If the NAM continues this though, we are in trouble.would start to temper expectations on the front snow band, we know how these things usually go when the nam starts firing warning shots like this. fully expect to start as sleet and hope to see some snow on the backend.