GSP seems to be leaning more towards the EURO/EPS and GEFS right now based on their overnight discussion. Also they give the indication that they will be watching for overrunning precip to start well out ahead of the system as the event draws closer
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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs
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Logan Is An Idiot 02
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Interesting. Icon shows more of a backend thump instead of front end
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Ugh GFS looks like it’s gonna be no improvement
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
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Sorry for the sloppy screenshots. Couldn’t figure out how to save the image. But this is the WPC for this weekend. I feel like this gives a pretty 
good idea on who will be seeing the bulk of wintry weather for now. But wow. It’s been a while since I’ve seen a 30-50% chance of a winter storm in the southeast. View attachment 104288View attachment 104288
good idea on who will be seeing the bulk of wintry weather for now. But wow. It’s been a while since I’ve seen a 30-50% chance of a winter storm in the southeast. View attachment 104288View attachment 104288
Man, even more amped and more of a warm nose 
Fairly rare winter storm with temps in the teens. Only “trend” I’m watching now is for less qpf. Miller B Transfer and too cold I bet there is some last minute swings to slightly dryer conditions..or I hope so
lol one more amped trend on the GFS and CLT May switch to rain. Lol
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Logan Is An Idiot 02
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Jeez. Look at where that low is. Either the GFS is onto something or it’s completely clueless 
Hope so cause they will need to thaw out. It’s common for major winter storms to end as drizzle ?. Hopefully it does here too but very unlikely
Lol what a sleet sounding 
weatherguysc
Member
Lol the H5 pattern looks much more like December 2002 now
Oconeexman
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Charlotte to extreme ne ga has the exact same soundings..heavy sleet!
That was a worse GFS run; especially for RDU folks (then up through DC). Looks like the storm traverses close to Raleigh (warm surface temps nears 50). RAH also acknowledging the models signaling an inland path for the storm once it transferred. The only thing I can go on is the storm will get better sampling starting tonight. Lets see if we can now get a few shifts in our favor.
LovingGulfLows
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EPS/GFES seems to indicate there could be major cutoffs in the ATL area on who sees frozen precip and who doesn't. Eastern half of the metro seems more favored for potentially more snow/sleet/ice than the western half because of the CAD.
Yall starting to make me feel guilty. But I'm holding by a hair if these trends continue.
6 inch probability. Huge run of the EPS for western NC
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While I hate the trends myself, typically models don’t go one way every single run until go time, especially with 108 hours still left
I would take that with a huge grain of salt… soundings indicate that it’s mainly a heavy sleet storm in a lot of that
Gefs looks wayyyy amped
lexxnchloe
Member
So much for the ensembles saving the day.