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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

Myfrotho704_ said:
I’m honestly thinking there’s gonna be more front end snow then shown.
First off the NAM has WAA cranking at hour 60 but no precip, WAA ofc is a forcing agent itself. I’m willing to be the nam is to dry, even with the big sfc/low level dry layer, the nam typically poorly shows dynamical cooling with large dry layers as I’ve seen several times and just rushes in warm noses while basically discounting dynamical cooling. if there’s one thing that overperforms in these amped up Miller B setups, it’s front end snow, this especially applies to CLT and NW.
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Couple that with the fact that it will help lock in CAD and further cool the column is important with this.
 
Wild Weather Monger said:
Most still found a way to get NAMED.
namconus_asnow_seus_28.png
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Yeah, the NAM is a major winter storm for many of us, it just isn’t a lot of snow outside the mountains. But after recent years, a couple inches of sleet in the 20s wouldn’t be too terrible…at least I can sled in it
 
CAE issues Winter Storm Watch for northern tier of CWA:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Columbia SC
338 PM EST Thu Jan 13 2022

Chesterfield-Newberry-Fairfield-Kershaw-Northern Lancaster-
Southern Lancaster-
Including the cities of Cheraw, Pageland, Newberry, Winnsboro,
Winnsboro Mills, Camden, Lugoff, Indian Land, Lancaster, Elgin,
and Lancaster Mill
338 PM EST Thu Jan 13 2022

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow
accumulations of up to two inches and ice accumulations of one
tenth to one quarter of an inch possible.

* WHERE...Portions of central South Carolina.

* WHEN...From late Saturday night through late Sunday night.

* IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the
ice. Travel could be nearly impossible.
 
mrdaddyman said:
I know that run of the NAM was much warmer than the 12Z run, but it was also much faster than the 12Z run. Brought the LP up the NC Coastal Plain instead of through the Triangle.
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Yes it was much faster. The Euro was a little stronger on the 12z and it resulted on a more potent thump on the front end. Pros and cons to almost every scenario now.
 
iGRXY said:
Couple that with the fact that it will help lock in CAD and further cool the column is important with this.
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Happens every time lol, that marginal setup last early February Iin SC for ex the NAMS rushed in a warm nose and discounted dynamical cooling and just had IP, while the HRRR showed snow associated with the dynamical cooling, I’d be worried if the HRRR sucks through hour 36
 
I just wanna say the amount of confirmation bias i’ve seen here the past couple of days is insane.

NAM has one good run at 12z: “this is the start of a trend, new obs lock it in, trust the thermals” etc.

NAM at 18z: “i don’t buy it, NAM thermals bad this far out, too amped” etc.

It’s a southeastern snow storm folks there’s gonna be run-to-run variability with each suite. The globals and their ensembles are in relatively good agreement currently, while short range CAMs are just barely in range.

Clearly is has been a loooong time since most folks here have had a good snow haha.
 
Justin Buchinsky said:
I just wanna say the amount of confirmation bias i’ve seen here the past couple of days is insane.

NAM has one good run at 12z: “this is the start of a trend, new obs lock it in, trust the thermals” etc.

NAM at 18z: “i don’t buy it, NAM thermals bad this far out, too amped” etc.

It’s a southeastern snow storm folks there’s gonna be run-to-run variability with each suite. The globals and their ensembles are in relatively good agreement currently, while short range CAMs are just barely in range.

Clearly is has been a loooong time since most folks here have had a good snow haha.
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This. We’re not even in the best range of the NAM yet LOL
 
PDubRDU said:
That storm was a huge disappointment. Still bitter about it today...
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DopplerWx said:
this one reminds me of that godawful jan 2018 storm in raleigh where we had about 12hrs of heavy sleet and no snow.
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At this point of completely striking out the past few winters I would be happy with a sleet fest. Just keep the ice away... Snow>Sleet>Rain>Ice
 
CAE's AFD laying out their thinking for the SC Midlands as of 4PM:

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
400 PM EST Thu Jan 13 2022

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Rapidly deepening low pressure in the western Atlantic Basin
will continue tracking away from the region Friday with high
pressure and drier air building in through the afternoon and
evening hours. As the high builds eastward through the Great
Lakes region colder air will be pushed southward along the
Appalachians and into the Carolinas. This will be the beginning
of the complex scenario with cold air damming entering the
northern portions of the forecast area Friday night into

Saturday morning however the southern extend of the cold air
damming remains in question with the latest expectation being
into the central Midlands with the coldest air from Chesterfield
through Newberry counties. With the cold air damming being in
place by midday Saturday the piece in the scenario being low
pressure from the western Gulf States moves eastward and begins
spreading moisture and warm air northward toward the forecast
area. This resulting temperature gradient will produce high
temperatures Saturday ranging from the mid 40s along the NC
border to the upper 50s in the southern CSRA with concern that
temperatures may be too high in the northern Midlands. Rain is
expected to begin Saturday evening across most of the forecast
area and with pwat values pushing one inch precip rates could be
a concern as the temperatures begin falling. As the low
approaches Saturday evening the cold air damming will be
strengthening resulting in a chance from rain to freezing rain
in the Pee Dee shortly after midnight and spreading into the
western Midlands shortly thereafter. Overnight the freezing rain
line will continue creeping southward and reach the central
Midlands around 5 am. As the low moves closer to the forecast
area it will take a northeasterly track and models so low level
temperatures warming and the freezing rain line retreating
northward during the sunrise and late morning hours. Concern
remains for the northern Midlands and Pee Dee where the cold air
damming will be tough to erode and expect freezing rain to
continue through midday. By early afternoon a precip should have
changed back to rain however this will be short lived as the low
center will be tracking east of the forecast area and
northwesterly flow along with colder air overtaking the region.

This will result in a mix of rain and snow Sunday evening into
Sunday night however no accumulation of snow is expected. Sunday
night concern will be temperatures going back below freezing and
the wet ground and roadways turning to ice. Although road
temperatures are currently warm much will change between now and
Sunday afternoon so will continue to monitor for icing issues.

As a result of this scenario and model to model and run to run
consistency being good have opted to issue a winter storm watch
for Lancaster, Chesterfield, Fairfield, Kershaw and Newberry
counties. This is for ice accumulations late Saturday evening
through Sunday across that area of one tenth to one quarter
inch. Freezing rain amounts from the watch area through the
central Midlands are expected to be one tenth of an inch or less
with no freezing rain accumulation in the southern Midlands and
CSRA. Will continue to monitor cold air damming strength and
south push of the cold air which could result in expanding the
watch area further south.
 
Justin Buchinsky said:
I just wanna say the amount of confirmation bias i’ve seen here the past couple of days is insane.

NAM has one good run at 12z: “this is the start of a trend, new obs lock it in, trust the thermals” etc.

NAM at 18z: “i don’t buy it, NAM thermals bad this far out, too amped” etc.

It’s a southeastern snow storm folks there’s gonna be run-to-run variability with each suite. The globals and their ensembles are in relatively good agreement currently, while short range CAMs are just barely in range.

Clearly is has been a loooong time since most folks here have had a good snow haha.
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It's been four years for me. Jan 2018 in Raleigh. In Asheville atm, I'm excited but cautious (because of what happened in Asheville in December of 2018)
 
For people in central NC it’s certainly interesting the NAM kept the low east and there for we went from 28 to 32 to then 36 as we peaked there. That wedge gets any more staying power or that low is slightly further East when it makes that move up the coast .. there will be a defined area that stays below freezing and depicting that will be hard at this stage
 
You don't start taking warning shots from the NAM until we are under 48 hours. And really you want to pay more attention to the 3K and that's more around 30hrs. We are still well outside the NAMs range for temp profiles right now so everybody relax and don't let your PTSD kill you
 
Does gsp has data that we don’t know about this storm and that’s how they come out with there snowfall totals
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
For people in central NC it’s certainly interesting the NAM kept the low east and there for we went from 28 to 32 to then 36 as we peaked there. That wedge gets any more staying power or that low is slightly further East when it makes that move up the coast .. there will be a defined area that stays below freezing and depicting that will be hard at this stage
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The zr shield definitely expanded east more with warning criteria very close to the coastal plains now
 
DopplerWx said:
i'll be shocked if clt metro sees 4-6" tbh. 1-2" of sleet sure but not snow.
View attachment 105109
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Agreed. Very surprised about that. Can't think of a model that shows that much snow for clt without serious (or all for that matter) mixing.

I'm also curious about the amount of precip that actual falls. A lot of times these storms underperform. Starting to watch the 3k at this point.
 
DopplerWx said:
would start to temper expectations on the front snow band, we know how these things usually go when the nam starts firing warning shots like this. fully expect to start as sleet and hope to see some snow on the backend.
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With that track backend snow will not make it into the upstate, it will curl up the spine of the apps and mtns of NC. Sometimes you can get cyclogenesis snow to form in the NC piedmont for a last gasp but that apps track probably won't deliver. Hopefully this run is bonkers. If the NAM continues this though, we are in trouble.
 
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