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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

this one reminds me of that godawful jan 2018 storm in raleigh where we had about 12hrs of heavy sleet and no snow.
 
Model Cha Cha Cha. If anything we usually see CAD’s trend colder and we are still more than 48 hours out


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namconus_ref_frzn_seus_47.png
Very interesting run regarding the wraparound snow
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
I wouldn’t really freak out over this nam run these are classic run to run changes we see with any typical winter storm in the SE View attachment 105096
Click to expand...
It is the NAM at 63 hours. I will wait and see what we are looking like late tonight and tommorrow morning with the NAM. I think we are headed for a our typical I-85 special with a sharp gradient of snow to an icy mix.
 
wow just got the same alert of the winter storm warning - this is amazing. I am still not sold that its going to happen and its been a long time. 6-10" for a large number of people shocked me this early out. it appears this is the usual set up here so I would not be surprised - and expect - a changeover to sleet or zr at some point but that it still one heck of a SE storm.
 
Well that NAM was definitely a strong winter storm slightly different outlook from what we've seen but still delivered all type of wintry mess thru MS/AL/GA/SC/NC
 
NE Ga Wx said:
wow just got the same alert of the winter storm warning - this is amazing. I am still not sold that its going to happen and its been a long time. 6-10" for a large number of people shocked me this early out. it appears this is the usual set up here so I would not be surprised - and expect - a changeover to sleet or zr at some point but that it still one heck of a SE storm.
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GSP pulling no punches with their Watch in NE GA. Damn! This is sure bullish.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
338 PM EST Thu Jan 13 2022

GAZ010-017-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-
SCZ001>003-140445-
/O.NEW.KGSP.WS.A.0001.220115T2300Z-220117T1300Z/
Rabun-Habersham-Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-
Buncombe-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-
Transylvania-Henderson-Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-
McDowell Mountains-Rutherford Mountains-Polk Mountains-
Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
Including the cities of Clayton, Pine Mountain, Mountain City,
Cornelia, Demorest, Clarkesville, Hollywood, Ingalls, Banner Elk,
Newland, Faust, Mars Hill, Marshall, Walnut, Allenstand,
Hot Springs, Luck, Swiss, Burnsville, Celo, Micaville,
Ramseytown, Busick, Spruce Pine, Poplar, Alarka, Almond,
Bryson City, Luada, Wesser, Waynesville, Waterville, Canton,
Cruso, Cove Creek, Asheville, Robbinsville, Stecoah, Cullowhee,
Tuckasegee, Sylva, Franklin, Rainbow Springs, Kyle, Highlands,
Wolf Mountain, Cashiers, Brevard, Cedar Mountain, Little River,
Hendersonville, Fletcher, Dana, East Flat Rock, Tuxedo, Etowah,
Jonas Ridge, Ashford, Woodlawn, Old Fort,
Chimney Rock State Park, Saluda, Mountain Rest, Walhalla,
Pumpkintown, Tigerville, Gowensville, Cleveland,
and Slater-Marietta
338 PM EST Thu Jan 13 2022

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow
accumulations of 6 to 10 inches across the mountain valleys and
extreme northeast Georgia, 8 to 12 inches along and near the
Blue Ridge Escarpment, and upwards of 12 to 20 inches at
elevations above 4000 feet, and ice accumulations of around one
tenth of an inch possible.

* WHERE...Portions of upstate South Carolina, northeast Georgia
and western North Carolina.

* WHEN...From Saturday evening through Monday morning.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The
hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Precipitation may begin as early as
Saturday afternoon across parts of the mountains, and will
increase in coverage and intensity late Saturday night with a
changeover to all snow in most places. Most of the precipitation
will fall as snow across the mountains and foothills of North
Carolina, northeast Georgia, and Upstate South Carolina. The
precipitation will taper off Sunday afternoon and evening, but
snow will linger along the Tennessee border into Monday morning.
Widespread black ice should be expected Monday morning, and may
be a concern into the middle of the week. Later guidance may
change snow amounts and will determine when a Warning is issued.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Watch means there is a potential for significant
snow, sleet, or ice accumulations that may impact travel.
Continue to monitor the latest forecasts.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of
weather information for the latest updates. Additional details
can be found at www.weather.gov/gsp.

&&

$$
 
DopplerWx said:
would start to temper expectations on the front snow band, we know how these things usually go when the nam starts firing warning shots like this. fully expect to start as sleet and hope to see some snow on the backend.
Click to expand...
I’m honestly thinking there’s gonna be more front end snow then shown.
First off the NAM has WAA cranking at hour 60 but no precip, WAA ofc is a forcing agent itself. I’m willing to be the nam is to dry, even with the big sfc/low level dry layer, the nam typically poorly shows dynamical cooling with large dry layers as I’ve seen several times and just rushes in warm noses while basically discounting dynamical cooling. if there’s one thing that overperforms in these amped up Miller B setups, it’s front end snow, this especially applies to CLT and NW.
 
DopplerWx said:
would start to temper expectations on the front snow band, we know how these things usually go when the nam starts firing warning shots like this. fully expect to start as sleet and hope to see some snow on the backend.
Click to expand...
1 run of the nam after the previous run it had front end snow is no reason to temper any expectations
 
Before the NAM run: Interesting 4-6 in Metro?

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow
accumulations of 6 to 8 inches over the northwest Piedmont, 4 to
6 inches along the I-85 corridor, 2 to 4 inches south of I-85,
and ice accumulations of around three tenths of an inch
possible.

* WHERE...Portions of upstate South Carolina, northeast Georgia
and the western Piedmont and foothills of North Carolina.

* WHEN...From late Saturday night through Sunday evening.

* IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the
ice. Travel could be nearly impossible.
 
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