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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Energy gets sampled tomorrow around this time, whatever trends start on 12-18z tomorrow probably determine what really happens
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NCSNOW
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OOPs: Went back and fixed: This is on page 67 of this thread. Now latter today we can go back and refence quicker without having to flip through dozens of frames on pivotal etc.
There are much less tracks offshore, but in four runs Kentucky has went from zero members to four or five, with a lot more members now tracking through central GA and central NC. There is a massive NW trend of the low tracks on the individual members. Now it may start trending the other way but the GEFS has went from a scrape to major bleeding and the wounds keep getting worse.
Agreed, but ultimately what most mets look at and what I believe GSP is doing based on their discussion is focused on where the members are clustering and how that supports other models… right now that’s between I-95 and the coastline, and has been fairly consistently clustered there
Gsp is discounting the gfs op atm
Forevertothee
Member
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 320 am EST Wednesday: The latest guidance suite is starting to
feature a bit better agreement on the overall aspects of the winter
storm likely to impact the area over the weekend. However, there
remains some variation regarding low tracks, thermal profiles, and
QPF for various periods, and these details continue to make
precipitation types and amounts highly uncertain.
Nearly all solutions have trended toward cutting off the southern
portion of the split upper flow near the lower Mississippi River
Valley by late Saturday. In a slight role reversal over the past 24
hours, the ECMWF 500 mb prognostic now features a cutoff low with a
farther south low center position than the operational GFS. However,
both models agree fairly well on the general timing, migrating the
system over the Deep/Mid South Sunday and then over the Carolinas
Sunday night as the system phases back into the northern stream.
Meanwhile, sprawling surface high pressure from southern Ontario to
New England will establish a strong cold air damming configuration
east of the Appalachians ahead of the storm on Saturday. The
resulting surface-based cold layer is becoming one of the more
confident aspects of the upcoming weekend storm. The onset timing of
wintry precipitation, however, remains uncertain. There are hints of
weak and shallow upglide developing over the preexisting baroclinic
zone as early as late Friday night or Saturday morning, with the
isentropic lift slowly improving the day on Saturday well east of
the approaching system. The forecast features below guidance
temperatures and wintry ptypes at onset across the northern half.
The period of deepest moisture and best forcing now looks slated for
Saturday night through Sunday as a Deep South surface wave
transitions to the Carolina coast. Strong jet-level divergence is
indicated during this period and deformation zone forcing will
likely impact our area by Sunday, especially over western NC given
the current low track forecast. Precipitation types remain
challenging. Profiles have trended to stronger warm nosing across
the southern half of the area, with prolonged sleet and southern
tier freezing rain now quite possible. However, the operational
model runs appear warmer than most of the ensemble members, so much
of the QPF could still fall as snow. An ensemble approach has been
adopted for weekend profiles, which leads to more snow in the
forecast than might be indicated on operational model profiles. The
mixed ptype belt should especially impact locations southeast of I-
85, but with a changeover back to snow likely occurring from the
west throughout on Sunday night as the system pulls away to the
northeast. Scattered upslope snow showers should persist along the
TN border counties through Sunday night, and possibly well into
Monday, further enhancing snow amounts there. We are still a
bit out of the Winter Storm Watch timeframe, so this will remain
highlighted in the HWO. The main change will be the addition of
sleet and freezing rain to the forecast, especially across the
southeast part of the area.
Another vigorous shortwave is forecast to drop southeast into the
eastern trough Monday before the flow pattern flattens out by
Tuesday. This could briefly reinvigorate western mountain snow
showers, which may not have completely ended from the weekend system
before this wave arrives. Upslope moisture will gradually end Monday
night into Tuesday.
As of 320 am EST Wednesday: The latest guidance suite is starting to
feature a bit better agreement on the overall aspects of the winter
storm likely to impact the area over the weekend. However, there
remains some variation regarding low tracks, thermal profiles, and
QPF for various periods, and these details continue to make
precipitation types and amounts highly uncertain.
Nearly all solutions have trended toward cutting off the southern
portion of the split upper flow near the lower Mississippi River
Valley by late Saturday. In a slight role reversal over the past 24
hours, the ECMWF 500 mb prognostic now features a cutoff low with a
farther south low center position than the operational GFS. However,
both models agree fairly well on the general timing, migrating the
system over the Deep/Mid South Sunday and then over the Carolinas
Sunday night as the system phases back into the northern stream.
Meanwhile, sprawling surface high pressure from southern Ontario to
New England will establish a strong cold air damming configuration
east of the Appalachians ahead of the storm on Saturday. The
resulting surface-based cold layer is becoming one of the more
confident aspects of the upcoming weekend storm. The onset timing of
wintry precipitation, however, remains uncertain. There are hints of
weak and shallow upglide developing over the preexisting baroclinic
zone as early as late Friday night or Saturday morning, with the
isentropic lift slowly improving the day on Saturday well east of
the approaching system. The forecast features below guidance
temperatures and wintry ptypes at onset across the northern half.
The period of deepest moisture and best forcing now looks slated for
Saturday night through Sunday as a Deep South surface wave
transitions to the Carolina coast. Strong jet-level divergence is
indicated during this period and deformation zone forcing will
likely impact our area by Sunday, especially over western NC given
the current low track forecast. Precipitation types remain
challenging. Profiles have trended to stronger warm nosing across
the southern half of the area, with prolonged sleet and southern
tier freezing rain now quite possible. However, the operational
model runs appear warmer than most of the ensemble members, so much
of the QPF could still fall as snow. An ensemble approach has been
adopted for weekend profiles, which leads to more snow in the
forecast than might be indicated on operational model profiles. The
mixed ptype belt should especially impact locations southeast of I-
85, but with a changeover back to snow likely occurring from the
west throughout on Sunday night as the system pulls away to the
northeast. Scattered upslope snow showers should persist along the
TN border counties through Sunday night, and possibly well into
Monday, further enhancing snow amounts there. We are still a
bit out of the Winter Storm Watch timeframe, so this will remain
highlighted in the HWO. The main change will be the addition of
sleet and freezing rain to the forecast, especially across the
southeast part of the area.
Another vigorous shortwave is forecast to drop southeast into the
eastern trough Monday before the flow pattern flattens out by
Tuesday. This could briefly reinvigorate western mountain snow
showers, which may not have completely ended from the weekend system
before this wave arrives. Upslope moisture will gradually end Monday
night into Tuesday.
Geez NW trends may not be done yet..
Euro less amped and slightly flatter, 850s look the same
There was a storm a while back I can't remember. But the models tried to plow it through cad. Does anyone remember that one its been in the last few years ?
iGRXY
Member
The GFS Did well moving this to a Miller B which the GEFS is figuring out but the evolution of the two are nothing alike. GEFS actually shows how a LP would track through central Alabama before a transfer occurs to the coast which is believable due to the strength and f the Cold dome. The GFS basically cuts through the Ohio valley and transfers to the 95 corridor and still plows the low through the CAD. That isn’t happening. Idc how much y’all want to push that theory but the GFS does this with any storm that has any type of CAD.
packfan98
Moderator
Definitely a touch weaker. Probably would be a slightly better run than 0z. Hopefully the eps agrees. It did look a touch warmer out in front to me.
iGRXY
Member
Everyone of them that has a CAD the globals try to run the storm right into the CAD
I noticed the NAM at 84 was close to the GFS in its location. Will be interesting to see where she goes when we get in range. With our hp retreating the gfs solution is entirely possible.
A actual better run at 850mb/H5, slighty lower heights to our NE
Do you have hour 90 surface yet?
Snownut
Member
Regardless, the way this thing looks right now, somewhere in the CAD areas of Upstate, Ne Ga, NC is gonna see a 12" wallop!
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