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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

BullCityWx said:
I think climo for us, with an event like this, would be a transfer like that. It may be too cold but I think that makes much more sense.
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As others have said, a storm modeled like the GFS can punch through the CAD, but more times than not the CAD overperforms (the storm aligns more eastward). It's one of the few things that usually gets better as we approach go time.
 
FWIW, I remember a storm some time ago (5 or 6 years or more) in which a met up in VA just said it was a physical impossibility for a low to run up through CAD, HP, block etc. He said it was scientifically impossible. All I know was that come verification time, the low was pretty dadgum close to where the models had predicted, and there wasn't a bit of freezing/frozen precip to be had. Not saying that is the case here because I don't think it is. The GFS is pretty much on it's own with the far inland path and very late transfer. I think alot of the discrpancy between the models is associated with the transfer to the coast. Hopefully it happens sooner rather than later and the primary washes out quickly and allows the low on the coast to have more impact on the flow.
TW
 
Wowzers. I'll take any snow tbh but that half foot projections by the previous run of the euro looks good.
 
Morning Folks..

Disco from KILM..
High pressure nosing in from the northeast on Saturday while a
potent trough dives south into the Ark-La-Tex.

The wedge will keep highs stuck in the low to mid 40s north of I-95 while southern areas
see upper 40s.

Saturday night as the upper low crosses the Gulf States its initial surface low will be directly underneath the upper
low.
At the same time height falls and strengthening warm advection
cause falling pressure off the Southeast coast and POPs will be
rising.
The 00Z guidance suite is showing some semblance of coming
towards a solution, but at this time it seems that none of them
probably have the evolution of the low level features correct.

The GFS probably looks the most suspect in its (new) depiction of a dual-
centered low though it has some faint support from the Canadian. The
EC solution indicates that the coastal low immediately comes to
dominate especially by 12Z Sunday.

The aforementioned congealing of just about all guidance is for a slightly slower progression as well
as a storm track closer to the coast. For our CWA this means that the opportunity for wintry precip has decreased.

At this time it looks like what may start as light rain early on will then change to
a chance for wintry precip as the wetbulb process causes temperatures to fall, especially inland.

The closer track suggests that this window may be small before the warm air aloft overwhelms
the system and most of the event is a cold rain, and possibly a
substantial drought-relieving one at that.

It is worth stressing however that this is only one model run and there still appears to
be an increasing chance for a significant ice storm SOMEWHERE in the
Carolinas.
 
Loganelliott99 said:
I may be wrong. But isn’t the GFS historically bad with CAD events?


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The NAM at the end of its 6z run (Hr 84) is 6° colder for ATL than the GFS and that’s just as the wedge is getting started. At the very least, things will get interesting.


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Anyone settling for major ice best think twice.

The electric grid today is massively bigger than it was in the December 2002 severe ice storm that left some without power for up to 3 weeks in 2002.

There has not been a proportionate increase in skilled lineman to keep up with the growth and some utilities dependent largely upon contractors in outages.

If a severe icing situation occurs many will be without power for a considerable length of time and few except rural folks are equipped and prepared to deal with those conditions.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
EPS was less amped but track in ENC was slightly north, however it’s stronger with the damming and had colder sfc temps View attachment 104328View attachment 104329View attachment 104330View attachment 104331View attachment 104332I’m really liking that FGEN band tho, that’s the wildcard for snow in this setup, these tend to overperform in CAD setupsView attachment 104334
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That FGEN band can quickly get accumulations started out ahead of the main system and really look the cold air into place. Cold dome with WAA riding over the top initially = potentially a lot of additional moisture out ahead.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
EPS was less amped but track in ENC was slightly north, however it’s stronger with the damming and had colder sfc temps View attachment 104328View attachment 104329View attachment 104330View attachment 104331View attachment 104332I’m really liking that FGEN band tho, that’s the wildcard for snow in this setup, these tend to overperform in CAD setupsView attachment 104334
Click to expand...
Yes sir, that fgen band many times has overperformed, not just in intensity, but also lasting longer than modeled before transition.... that's the real hope here. But then it's slopfest on top of it ugh
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
EPS was less amped but track in ENC was slightly north, however it’s stronger with the damming and had colder sfc temps View attachment 104328View attachment 104329View attachment 104330View attachment 104331View attachment 104332I’m really liking that FGEN band tho, that’s the wildcard for snow in this setup, these tend to overperform in CAD setupsView attachment 104334
Click to expand...
I really think that FGEN band is something to watch closely for as we get closer. They tend to be undermodeled, and typically will arrive much earlier than what the medium range models show… also they can put down some very impressive rates.
 
NCHighCountryWX - totally agree that the power companies can't find enough new workers to enter the field. On the flip side however, alot of the growth over the last 20 years has gone underground. The exception is transmission lines, but those are usually not impacted by falling trees/limbs....... but just the weight on the lines if the ice is thick enough can still do it. On this storm, I believe sleet will save the day for many while there will still be a hopefully slender strip that will see severe icing.
TW
 
I will say right where I'm at is a very precarious location. If the GFS is the worst case in terms of temps, it's pretty close aside from a few hours of really pushing the warm nose in. It's all about that wedge and starting 850s. From how I see it, we either hold barely up here and the south side of the county or down to Alpharetta gets mixing, or we get a sleetfest to ice storm to a light dusting afterwards. Too early to say anything.
 
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