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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

From FFC’s overnight disco:

The GFS and ECMWF have come into better agreement with the
progression of the surface and mid level low tracks. The ECMWF has
also come around to a slightly stronger wedge than in previous runs,
but is still a bit weaker than the GFS. The ECMWF`s upper low track
is still a bit further south than the GFS, but the surface low
tracks are pretty similar.

Models soundings from the GFS (slightly stronger wedge), do show
potential for FZRA during the early/middle part of Saturday.
However, the warm nose isn`t very as strong as it could be due to
some colder temps aloft. This could be due to the deep NW flow in
place from the strong trough/shortwave that comes through Thursday
night/early Friday. Regardless, most of north GA will have the
potential to see the wintry mix late Saturday into Sunday, with
locales in the wedge having the most potential for FZRA. It`s still
too far out to discuss winter precip amounts with any accuracy,
especially since the models have trouble with strength of the warm
nose.

MaxT values on Sunday will be tricky since there are major
differences in the strength of the wedge. May end up going a few
degrees cooler within the wedge.
 
Tarheel1 said:
As Fro stated, this has an almost identical look to December 2002! The 85 corridor in Greenville, started as sleet/ZR, and temps about 29, temps fell to about 24-25 degrees for the duration. Not one flake of snow fell, but up towards Gastonia, they got a hard front end thump of snow, before changeover
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Definitely don't want that solution. Had trees come down and was without power for quite a while.
 
NEGaweather said:
I think North Georgia sees a winter mess. A mix of everything. A little shift will make a big difference but I think a winter storm of some sort is likely.


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Are you thinking from Blairsville over to Toccoa down to Elberton? May get ice down to Gwinnett County, though.
 
Ron Burgundy said:
From FFC’s overnight disco:

The GFS and ECMWF have come into better agreement with the
progression of the surface and mid level low tracks. The ECMWF has
also come around to a slightly stronger wedge than in previous runs,
but is still a bit weaker than the GFS. The ECMWF`s upper low track
is still a bit further south than the GFS, but the surface low
tracks are pretty similar.

Models soundings from the GFS (slightly stronger wedge), do show
potential for FZRA during the early/middle part of Saturday.
However, the warm nose isn`t very as strong as it could be due to
some colder temps aloft. This could be due to the deep NW flow in
place from the strong trough/shortwave that comes through Thursday
night/early Friday. Regardless, most of north GA will have the
potential to see the wintry mix late Saturday into Sunday, with
locales in the wedge having the most potential for FZRA. It`s still
too far out to discuss winter precip amounts with any accuracy,
especially since the models have trouble with strength of the warm
nose.

MaxT values on Sunday will be tricky since there are major
differences in the strength of the wedge. May end up going a few
degrees cooler within the wedge.
Click to expand...
Key thing being the last part, if the CAD is as stout (or even stronger) I’ll be surprised if ATL gets above a 32-34 (Sunday) on the warmer side. I think once that wedge settles in, it’s most likely holding firm throughout the entire event. Only going off of past experiences w/ CAD involved winter events. Still an equal scenario this doesn’t happen. I’m still cautiously optimistic despite the OP GFS. Hoping for February 2014 (more sleet vs ice) but preparing for the worst (January 2005; more ice vs sleet).

EDIT: I’ll throw this out there, In a best case scenario with a strong, stout CAD, I’m thinking a range of 26-32 for ATL.
 
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The more and more I think about it, like others, I am drawn to the 12/4/02 analog. I'm afraid that is where the trends are taking us. One difference we have with that event, however, is very cold ground temps(especially N of 40): ecmwf_soilt_7cm_raleigh_96.png

You can maximize whatever falls via sleet or snow with those ground temps. Things should stick immediately with temps in the lower 20s and cold ground temps.
 
Weatherlover92 said:
Key thing being the last part, if the CAD is as stout (or even stronger) I’ll be surprised if ATL gets above a 32-34 (Sunday) on the warmer side. I think once that wedge settles in, it’s most likely holding firm throughout the entire event. Only going off of past experiences w/ CAD involved winter events. Still an equal scenario this doesn’t happen. I’m still cautiously optimistic despite the OP GFS. Hoping for February 2014 (more sleet vs ice) but preparing for the worst (January 2005; more ice vs sleet).

EDIT: I’ll throw this out there, In a best case scenario with a strong, stout CAD, I’m thinking a range of 26-32 for ATL.
Click to expand...

Agreed atl north will not get above freezing Sunday


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Jimmy Hypocracy said:
I can’t underestimate how strong of a CAD that really is. This is rare, guys. No two ways about it.
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Yea, that's how you know were gonna get F'kd by ice. This isn't your typical 32 / 31 degree and rain model outputs. My only hope and prayer is that 22 -25 degrees is cold enough to refreeze into IP before hitting the ground.
 
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