Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

[Cary_Snow95]

At the surface, appeared the NAM was taking the LP near the GFS

 

[Storm5]

Yeah the nam SLP is south of the gfs . Looking flatter less amped


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[iGRXY]

The Baja low already looks like it's having a tug at our energy in the PNW.

 

[tennessee storm]

Going over most ensembles seeing pointing to a Kentucky Tennessee storm for sure … western half least

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

View attachment 104360
View attachment 104364

If you loop the NAM from 75-84 you can tell it’s headed toward GFS location. Just slower doing so.

 

[Ward Cleaver]

NAM to me looks way better, better then the last 3 runs and some OP models

I completely agree. We’ll know more this time tomorrow obviously, but I’d take the low placement on the 12z compared to the 06z any day. Everything is still on the table at this point.

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

While the L placement on the maps looks similar, the wind streams show significant differences.

NAM with its stiff easterly wedge enhance surface winds:

The GFS with its amped upper low drilling the surface low down to the surface resulting in a SE wind over the gulf coast states:

 

[Arcc]

Another thing to note here is this is about as classic of a look for a southern snow storm as you can get. Weaker surface low that is right on the gulf coast instead of northern Mississippi, and a classic banana high with deep CAD and a strong high pressure over the top in the plains. Call me a crackhead but if this run continued I don't see how the LP could go north.

If by southern, you mean northern TN and Kentucky, sure.

 

[iGRXY]

If you loop the NAM from 75-84 you can tell it’s headed toward GFS location. Just slower doing so.

I'm not seeing that at all. The GFS continued a northward movement into Tennessee. The Nam was moving due east. Maybe ENE ever so slightly but is also much further south.

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

I'm not seeing that at all. The GFS continued a northward movement into Tennessee. The Nam was moving due east. Maybe ENE ever so slightly but is also much further south.

It moved NNNE

 

[SE22wx]

NAM very similar to Euro at hour 84

 

[CaryWx]

Sounds like a timing differential, not a path differential

 

[Ward Cleaver]

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

View attachment 104371

Yes. NAM definitely slower this run for sure.

 

[KyloG]

ICON with just a beaut of a surface map ...thats going to result in this running up the Apps.

 

[ATLwxfan]

I agree, but I don't like how there is not a good push of dry air down into CAD areas (outside of NC, that is) That push is just not super strong and the low is already into MS.

One thought…the track is further south and more strung out. Does that allow us to depend less on CAD?


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[Storm5]

For the love of god why are we going back and forth about where the NAM ended up . Move it to banter . Everyone said their opinion


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[Ward Cleaver]

If by southern, you mean northern TN and Kentucky, sure.

I agree. The NAM shifted slightly toward the Euro solution over the GFS. We’re still way out and it’s anyone’s guess, but it’s too early for anyone to throw in the towel yet.

 

[iGRXY]

ICON is sheared

 

[KyloG]

FWIW...ICON further south than previous runs