Broken024
Member
That's an icy mess deep into SC
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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
MichaelJ
Member
I would not put a lot of faith in the ICON and JB always wants them to cut so the NE can get the storm and shut out the South
Icon is likely to Miller B but that's a pretty good look for a big winter storm
tucker
Member
Temps on ICON need to be ignored correct? If I remember it likes to take a torch to everything.
Broken024
Member
Temps are low, it just doesn't show sleet/fr on map
iGRXY
Member
ICON is a miller B as the low moves from south-central Alabama to nearly coastal Georgia in the next frame. Point is that is how a LP would likely move around the cold dome. Get roughly to central Alabama before you see a transfer close to the coast.
It has a strong warm bias that generally plays out regularly to have the temps quite wrong compared to other models
Look at the CAD strength difference here.. much stronger and instead of the low pressure cutting right into the wall of cold dense air it scurries along the perimeter allowing that CAD to stay solidly in place ..
Can we agree that because certain model runs are being discussed it doesn't necessarily mean anyone believes it to be the final outcome. We've been told to not believe the LR this or don't put faith in that, now we're hugging this one or that one.... for the love of all that is good, this is a weather forum with a legit wintry threat. We can and we will discuss any and all model runs and analyze each run as much as we like. That's why we are here and I nor anyone else needs 50 post to tell us what model run we shouldn't be looking at.
Thank you, I'll step down off the soap box now...... carry on
Thank you, I'll step down off the soap box now...... carry on
And (I'm surprised somebody hasn't mentioned this -- you people are dropping the ball), the ICON has a warm bias.
Not to be that guy with this ICON run but while the placement was better, the CAD was better, the slp was also stronger so it's trending stronger..... hope that doesn't mean it eventually trends more NW. Guess we will see
iGRXY
Member
The ICON's LP progression is just more believable to me. It's the ICON and I get all of that but regardless of what it spits out, that LP movement is just a lot more trustworthy IMO. It also matches well with the NAM.
You simply cannot believe an ICON run that...oh wait...never mind! It's actually encouraging that it slid so far south. Great winter storm look, as was said. But if it does wind up, it will be hard to keep it way offshore.
Z
Zander98al
Guest
I'f the icon has a warm bias than the whole backside of that low will likely be more close to all freezing precip I would imagine?
packfan98
Moderator
Not a great track through NC on the ICON. Still Yuck for lots of places.
Something I would also watch for.. usually with Miller Bs we end up with some sort of deform band behind the system or an upper low on the backside moves over and usually the short range models pick up in this better but most of the time things changeover to snow and there’s some isolated convective stuff behind the system .. that will be interesting to look at as we get into short range model range
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