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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Oh my??
Stormlover
Member
Are you thinking this or this coming for a meteorologist?? Sorry…. Asking for a friend.
Nomanslandva
Member
GFS Clown for everyone interested.
Stormlover
Member
Jill Gilardi, Met in Birmingham put it out
Bombs out more than expected and backs up the flow, saving the day for us?
GEFS continues to tick west, better than op but not by much
Snowflowxxl
Member
CMC is about a degree warmer at the surface so far here
alfoman
Member
An ever so slight southern trend on the past few runs for the GFS with the placement of our ULL. Also while there haven't been significant changes, watch that SW out in canada, as it is what causes our ULL to start rotating northeast. Tomorrow will be about fine tuning the details and every detail matters. 
Snowflowxxl
Member
alfoman
Member
0Z CMC is north a little bit as well before the ULL heads straight into the apps. The SW in the midwest digs much deeper this run, which causes the tug even more northward once again on the CMC.
Edit: Another thing to watch for after our storm heads out...look how much farther that SW has been digging behind our main system. It even closes off on this run, something to keep an eye out for.
Edit: Another thing to watch for after our storm heads out...look how much farther that SW has been digging behind our main system. It even closes off on this run, something to keep an eye out for.
Clem282340
Member
Is this model any good
NWMSGuy
Member
Wonder what graphic this is from weatherbell?
Stormlover
Member
canadian at noon sun
Stormlover
Member
No, Jill Gilardi, Meteorologist at a station in Birmingham
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BufordWX
Member
Looks like it is Euro/CMC/RGEM Vs. GFS/NAM for the front end snow in northern Georgia. We will see what the 00z Euro holds. I don’t know about anyone else but it feels hard to bet against that Euro/CMC combo
21z SREF RDU … ?
Clem282340
Member
That was a really good run for the upstate on the 0z cmc is it a good model
NWMSGuy
Member
The map Jill uses is a graphic from weatherbell. I’m wanting to know what graphic that is.
Funny you mention this. I was wondering what it would take for this to happen. Looking for anything besides a -NAO to do it.
Snowflowxxl
Member
0z UKMET
Snowflowxxl
Member
Northern MS had a foot on the NAM and not a flake on the UKMET ?
Clem282340
Member
Did the low go into the gulf
Stormlover
Member
similar to this 500 mb humidity
NWMSGuy
Member
Excellent! Thanks!similar to this 500 mb humidity
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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Starting at 35 in GSP as precip starts! That’s not good
I didn't look at the surface, but the UKMET has the 500Mb low the farthest south and east of all of the 00z models so far. It's placement might force me to wait to see if the EURO follows suit.
I'll take my chances with the thermals with this look here.
Here GA folks
snowlover91
Member
Very interesting UK changes up in Canada. Hmmm.
Iceagewhereartthou
Member
Wow don't know what say about that NAM run. The long range NAM can be off its rocker but I can't believe what its been doing in MS/AL/TN; and man that was a disaster for the upstate. Heck, even the GFS was better there.
This model suite appears to be more amped and warmer overall. I do not like the trends this afternoon and evening.
This model suite appears to be more amped and warmer overall. I do not like the trends this afternoon and evening.
There she is. Izzy. The maker and breaker of weenie dreams.
RAP 03z pretty suppressed 
Stronger that ocean low gets, the more it could back up the flow behind it just a bit as it moves up into the Canadian Maritimes, and then forces the next shortwave rolling thru the Great Lakes to slow down and adjust a little south. Likely fantasy land, but crazy things can happen out over the Gulf Stream
Very similar to 18z thru 24 hours
Looks like it may be digging a bit more and a bit further south compared to 18z at hr 33, though I am splitting very fine hairs. Strength is the same.
EDIT: Surface features appear a tad north at hr 39? I am not good at predicting where this stuff is going, though, LOL...I imagine it isn't going to significantly differ from the 18z run, though.
Four-contour closed off ULL at hr 51. Oof, it's going to be a hell of a storm, but I figure there's going to be a hell of a lot of WAA to contend with. I'd suspect it's going to be a bit warmer than last run above the surface.
EDIT: Surface features appear a tad north at hr 39? I am not good at predicting where this stuff is going, though, LOL...I imagine it isn't going to significantly differ from the 18z run, though.
Four-contour closed off ULL at hr 51. Oof, it's going to be a hell of a storm, but I figure there's going to be a hell of a lot of WAA to contend with. I'd suspect it's going to be a bit warmer than last run above the surface.
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