I don’t recall anything about the ICON being warm-biased like I’m reading some here? I don’t think that’s true? If anything, I’ve seen the opposite in the past at the surface.
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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs
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LovingGulfLows
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ICON saves much of NGA including the Atlanta area with an area of snow associated with the strong upper level low overhead. I honestly wouldn't be surprised if the backend snow trends more potent as we get closer to the event, similar to the early Jan event.
Yeah, most everyone outside the mountains is going to change over to something other than snow with an onshore track. Really can’t have that.Not a great track through NC on the ICON. Still Yuck for lots of places.
lj0109
Member
Granted the ICON has been all over the place (along with the others) and will likely continue to play catch up with this thing, with its known 2m warm bias...the 12Z is quite the concerning look for the I-20 corridor in E GA/SC for what could be a significant ice event. Also kudos to all and the mods for the continued great discussion with this complex event.
packfan98
Moderator
Here's the temps that goes with the timeframe I just posted. ICE for many.
iGRXY
Member
It's been noted by a few people that it does tend to have a warm bias in the LR.
Really not a fan of the slowing trend that seems to be continuing each day. Allowing the 50/50 to move out
That's major ice for a huge chuck SC. My hope is we can trend even colder and and shear out the engery more and more, so we push the low pressure system towards northern Gulf, then more of us get snow/sleet and less areas with freezing rain. Basically wishcasting at this point,but just maybe we pull a Feb 2014 and avoid a very damnaging and historic ice storm.
iGRXY
Member
Yeah a lot of that is ZR in the midlands. It fact the ZR would probably be even further south into the low country if the warm bias of the ICON is also taken into account.
griteater
Member
weathernerds.org has precip type maps for the ICON but it comes out slower (probably not out yet)
Freezing Rain is a self limiting process! Does the icon run warm!? GSP at 28 degrees
I also distinctly recall last winter in several CAD situations the consensus here was it had a COLD bias and that did verify. Different setup though, and maybe something has changed. IDK.
Could be that some mistake the lack of mixed precip clown maps that have created this thinking? Or does someone have some empirical evidence to the contrary?
TWC
NEGaweather
Member
ATL Mets aren’t backing off which is surprising. The strength of the CAD probably has a lot to do with that.
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Cary_Snow95
Member
Gfs is still deepening. Unreal
It's going to be hard to avoid this look unless we can find a model trend of faster, weaker to avoid the trailing wave coming in and really helping bias the pattern NWNot a great track through NC on the ICON. Still Yuck for lots of places.
iGRXY
Member
Off first glance, The GFS looks like it has a bit more interaction with the baja low at 33.
NoSnowATL
Member
Dew Point -6 in Virginia and single digits in NC. I still think we need to watch for dryer trends and I also believe CAD will not move out as fast given such arid conditions.
ColdCoreLow
Member
Love the position of the low in south GA