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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

Watch expanding south.. Jackson, Pickens and Madison county added to watch




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6z GFS is futherest east with its inland track through NC, than it has been

Kuchera
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6z Nam Kuchera
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NEGaweather said:
Watch expanding south.. Jackson, Pickens and Madison county added to watch




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I think the counties shown were all under one yesterday evening. Cherokee, Forsyth, Gwinnett, Barrow, and Clarke should probably be added soon. Everyone else will probably just have a WWA.
 
I know Pickens was just added and I don’t remember seeing Madison and Jackson on list but I could be wrong. Yea I think by 4 today it’ll expand.


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With it being closer to the time everything arrives do models still have enough time to change drastically or in this range is it pretty close to what the outcome will be?
 
tempo47 said:
With it being closer to the time everything arrives do models still have enough time to change drastically or in this range is it pretty close to what the outcome will be?
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Weather doesn’t follow what models say.

That said…

Models probably not. But weather is unpredictable and can do whatever it wants. Can’t tell you how many times storms did what they wanted - regardless of model output.

That said, models only get better and better as time goes on.
 
As we know most of these are probably overdone, however, as we also saw with the system back in first part of January, a mature low like this can realize it's full wind potential and with ice on trees..... so even if you knock 10 or so off of these still going to be problematic

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DCK said:
Also, isn't there a point where ice will no longer accrue even if its
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I don’t know about that, but to me the biggest thing on the ICE maps is while I think that there will be an area that sees .5-.75” accrual, it will be in a much more narrow corridor than what’s being shown. I really think that northern and western parts of what’s being shown on those maps will see sleet be the dominant precip… and quite bit of it
 
metwannabe said:
Keeping a close eye on short range models as the day progresses, 3k NAM showing warning criteria for ice accrual pretty far east into the Carolina's
(still zr in most locations at end of it's run)

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So is the precip just to the NW of the darker pink falling as sleet then, since the axis of heavier ZR seems to be further east?
 
DCK said:
Also, isn't there a point where ice will no longer accrue even if its
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It there isn't a continuous feed of cold dry air then yes due to latent heat release zr can be self limiting, obviously once temps inch above 32. Also temps around 31 or 32 with heavy rates aren't going to accrue as much either, several factors can affect ice accrual.
 
metwannabe said:
Keeping a close eye on short range models as the day progresses, 3k NAM showing warning criteria for ice accrual pretty far east into the Carolina's
(still zr in most locations at end of it's run)

1642356000-m6LIfIdIuM0.png
Click to expand...

This is still 40-48 hrs out for us....there will be some tweaks down the stretch, whether it be good or bad for us. I still think it corrects south and east some as the models really turn the corner fast with this storm....this seems overdone to me. Also the globals are usually to quick to kill the wedge and we are already seeing hints ( 3k Nam ) that the wedge may hold longer etc....all in all I think I get more than what the models show but not nearly enough to get excited over.....not really a fan of ice storms, a little in the trees is nice to look at but beyond that its just the most useless winter ptype ever so less is fine with me.....
 
wake4est said:
Thanks. So many models are really showing very little sleet so this is interesting to see on the 3k.
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If you look at soundings as opposed to just the snowfall maps I think you will see many models are actually in fact showing quite a bit of IP.
 
metwannabe said:
As we know most of these are probably overdone, however, as we also saw with the system back in first part of January, a mature low like this can realize it's full wind potential and with ice on trees..... so even if you knock 10 or so off of these still going to be problematic

1642464000-BhSBiGwbNX8.png

1642442400-E7BBjTHBa8o.png

1642442400-c73GpTnytW8.png

1642356000-WSzZVgRLfWQ.png
Click to expand...
Any idea how these models performed with the last storm? I feel like the nws was way under while we got those 40 to 50 mph gusts while they called for weaker.
 
Front end snow definitely looks pretty possible right now. The NAM really struggles with FGEN that sparks WAA over a cold column increasing precip rates quite a bit out ahead of the system. The HRRR leads the way with this and something the globals (EURO in particular) continues to show.
 
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