Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

[Chazwin]

06z suite continuing the trends of minimal to no front end snow for clt. Likely a sleet fest. Blech. Better than freezing rain I guess.
View attachment 105375

I think the key for CLT metro is how strong and how far to the east that initial FGEN band is. The Euro has been steadfast on all of CLT metro, including southern and eastern parts, getting in on that for at least several hours… and with some pretty good rates. This is something that the 3kmNam has trouble picking up on at this range. The HRRR does a great job on picking up on it, so we’ll need to see if it begins matching the Euro as it comes into better range later today

 

[RBR71]

Any idea how these models performed with the last storm? I feel like the nws was way under while we got those 40 to 50 mph gusts while they called for weaker.

IIRC they were still overdone but not nearly as much so as we've seen previously, we had some 40-50 mph wind gust with that one. So I'd say about as accurate with it as I'd seen them

 

[jackendrickwx]

 

[Chazwin]

Brad P. Snow the sleet/freezing rain back to snow. Are y’all buying snow on the backend?


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It really is tough to say. I do know from watching these storms over the years, the times that CLT metro has gotten in on back end snowfall has been systems that are deepening quickly and producing a lot of wind… both of which appears to be the case here.

 

[Showmeyourtds]

Any idea how these models performed with the last storm? I feel like the nws was way under while we got those 40 to 50 mph gusts while they called for weaker.

I’ve always heard these are a bit overstated, but I recorded a TS plus gust (52) but some of the short range hi-res models didn’t show me over 30

 

[jackendrickwx]

It’s been a long time since ILM has had to issue these

 

[NBAcentel]

Looks to be more borderline for the North Charlotte area now after the overnights. With the normal game time trends we might end up with a cold rain. I guess sleet is not the worst thing in the world.

Rain would be pretty cold in the mid 20s

 

[NBAcentel]

 

[alfoman]

12Z HRRR a little quicker with the system and more north, but colder in the CAD regions overall so far through 39 hours

 

[Zander98al]

LR HRRR has the Low pressure about 50 miles or so more south in Alabama when it comes through along with the warmer temps being over the southern 3rd of the state. With central and north Alabama in the upper 30s lower 40s. Something to watch. Wether these temps budge any, or actual realtime analysis shows temperatures being warmer from forecasts then what's showing up sounding wise. Wouldn't be much of a surprise for temps to be a little lower than models show.

 

[LukeBarrette]

12Z HRRR a little quicker with the system and more north, but colder in the CAD regions overall so far through 39 hours

Just me or is it more south than other models?

 

[Zander98al]

Just me or is it more south than other models?

It is.

 

[NBAcentel]

Hrrr really fetching those low dews in

 

[MotoWeatherman]

Just me or is it more south than other models?

Way south. Just compare the composite reflectivity maps of the 12z HRRR at 6z Sunday to the 6m NAM 3k run. NAM has precip way up in TN while HRRR barely hits the southern TN border.

 

[alfoman]

Just me or is it more south than other models?

MUCH more south than the 6Z 3K NAM was at the same time frame. The 12Z NAM is running though, so lets see if this chnages or not

 

[BufordWX]

Hrrr is gonna go for it.

 

[Storm5]

Tenn basically bone dry on the HRRR


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[RBR71]

Hrrr really fetching those low dews inView attachment 105382View attachment 105383

Yeah, that band tomorrow across northern NC literally dries up as it moves east due to the very low DPs starting to dive south into NE NC.

 

[Nerman]

HRRR looking like the EURO

 

[BufordWX]

 

[DopplerWx]

can always count on the long range hrrr

 

[J.C.]

HRRR 12z

 

[Snowflowxxl]

HRRR is gonna pound metro ATL

 

[DopplerWx]

warm nose just held off at 48

 

[BufordWX]

 

[iGRXY]

Definitely looks nothing like the NAM from 6z

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

HRRR looking like the EURO
View attachment 105387

Yes it does..

 

[GaSnowhound]

HRRR is gonna pound metro ATL

How reliable is HRRR at this range (roughly 4??

 

[Flotown]

Wow that's way south

 

[NBAcentel]

Pretty classic dynamical cooling on the hrrr

 

[DopplerWx]

 

[Spurs up]

Yes it does..

im surprised CAE has no advisories?

 

[ATLwxfan]

View attachment 105397

It’s really wherever a convective bands sets up. Feast or famine.


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[jrips27]

What could go wrong for the North Atlanta burbs lol

 

[GaSnowhound]

How reliable is HRRR at this range (roughly 4??

I meant how reliable is HRRR within roughly 48 hrs or less???

 

[Flo]

im surprised CAE has no advisories?

Cold rain advisory

 

[Spurs up]

Cold rain advisory

?

 

[Snowflowxxl]

How reliable is HRRR at this range (roughly 4??

Not very. Does better inside 12 hours

 

[Chazwin]

How reliable is HRRR at this range (roughly 4??

Generally it’s not in its wheelhouse yet, but when it’s matching the Euro so closely it certainly has some validity

 

[iGRXY]

Just a hair weaker and slightly further south than 6z.