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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

Myfrotho704_ said:
Really shows that dynamical cooling temporarily offsetting the warm nose in December 2018 fashion
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I was just about to compare it to that storm. The big difference is that it looks like we have a dryer airmass in place and that the wintry precip should be much further south.
 
malak05 said:
NAM3k and NAM aren't exactly In agreement. You can see a good bit more ice extending westward on 3k and quicker transition to snow in this frame by comparison. The 3k temp profiles maybe have different outlook on cold and cad
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In fact it sorta pinches from East further Ice Penetration into GA and from West further quicker Snow Transition
 
You really gotta watch it with deep closed lows like this. Very tricky

Yes, the warm tongue aloft can be fierce, but for the precip nearest to the upper level low center, the lift and instability can sometimes be intense enough that you can easily and unexpectedly flip over to those muffin-sized flakes that survive through that above freezing layer.

Also wouldn't sleep on the wraparound snows either. These deep closed ULL are good at trapping moisture on the west side of a system and it can take forever to ring out.
 
Stormlover said:
1642399200-OAe2TKwDg9Q.png
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Amazing to see a foot of snow modeled in MS at 78 hours.
 
NorthDFWwx said:
You really gotta watch it with deep closed lows like this. Very tricky

Yes, the warm tongue aloft can be fierce, but for the precip nearest to the upper level low center, the lift and instability can sometimes be intense enough that you can easily and unexpectedly flip over to those muffin-sized flakes that survive through that above freezing layer.

Also wouldn't sleep on the wraparound snows either. These deep closed ULL are good at trapping moisture on the west side of a system and it can take forever to ring out.
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GSP mentioned this in their disco this afternoon too.
 
NorthDFWwx said:
You really gotta watch it with deep closed lows like this. Very tricky

Yes, the warm tongue aloft can be fierce, but for the precip nearest to the upper level low center, the lift and instability can sometimes be intense enough that you can easily and unexpectedly flip over to those muffin-sized flakes that survive through that above freezing layer.

Also wouldn't sleep on the wraparound snows either. These deep closed ULL are good at trapping moisture on the west side of a system and it can take forever to ring out.
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I said the same a few days ago. I said we need to watch the ULL closely because in these types of events, models might not have a good handle of how much snow there could be associated with it until close to verification. You can already see models pumping up the snow amounts in MS/AL with the backside comma head and it's looking VERY healthy on the NAM. Lots of vigorous rotation with this upper level low so moisture can definitely wrap around the west of it which would prolong snow.
 
North and east suburbs may be different, but I'm becoming less convinced that ITP ATL sees any problems with ice. Wrap around from the ULL will be the best bet for snow.

Funny thing is on the 12K NAM is that there are snow soundings with temps at 38 & 37 at hour 51 & 54...but as the cold core passes overhead, all the soundings indicate rain.

I would think at this point, the best shot at flakes would be on the backside rather than front.

Not sure if the wedge can nose the SL to the south or not, but I'm glad I'm not a professional meteorologist right meow. Tons of bust (good and bad) potential on it.
 
LovingGulfLows said:
I said the same a few days ago. I said we need to watch the ULL closely because in these types of events, models might not have a good handle of how much snow there could be associated with it until close to verification. You can already see models pumping up the snow amounts in MS/AL with the backside comma head and it's looking VERY healthy on the NAM. Lots of vigorous rotation with this upper level low so moisture can definitely wrap around the west of it which would prolong snow.
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The NAM presentation would be gangbusters for our area should the 500Mb low move even 50 miles southeast of its forecast position as it moves through Ga.

Not only would the snowfall from the upper low be more intense, but below freezing temps with the enhanced CAD flow would reach into Atlanta. Still time.
 
snowlover91 said:
Here’s the end of the 00z Fv3 high res.

View attachment 105263
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Looks quite warm. In fact it's very similar to the GFS. No icing issues at all for I-20 corridor areas. I don't buy that this model being correct with the surface temperatures. Maybe Augesta and points west escapes with pure rain. However with the amount of wedging in place,I expect some icing issues along I-20 from Aiken and points east towards Florence. The question how much icing for those areas.
 
LovingGulfLows said:
With the H5 look like this, there's no way that should be rain in AL. 540dm cold core low in central AL and it's raining to the north of it LOL. Give me a break.

fv3-hires_z500_vort_us_61.png
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There are boundary layer issues there.

The cold air from the Carolinas runs into the front coming in from the west with the low. Temps there would crash as the ULL passes and the wind switches to the WSW.

namconus_T2m_us_45.png
 
malak05 said:
I don't know 3k NAM seemed to have a much more robust CAD
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Yeah. I guess I was referencing some of those crazy NAM and Euro runs from yesterday showing a healthy amount of ZR stretching deep into Atlanta for several hours. I think whats happening is since this system has sped up its not letting the CAD build in as much prior. So like according to the 3K might have a majority of precip fall as rain before a changeover to ZR and then snow. But there’s still a ton of time and wouldn’t be surprised to see the CAD trend stronger and deeper into GA. Things will change.
 
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