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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

WeatherNC said:
One has to wonder if we entered that dead zone where globals waffle in the 3-5 day period. Only to come back to there original’ish solution inside day 3.
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Maybe so. But I would desperately try to avoid using the LR Nam as evidence of, well, anything lol
 
iGRXY said:
View attachment 104354This is a great switch on the Nam. Weaker surface low. It's further south. And clearly there is more CAD at the end of the NAM.
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Another thing to note here is this is about as classic of a look for a southern snow storm as you can get. Weaker surface low that is right on the gulf coast instead of northern Mississippi, and a classic banana high with deep CAD and a strong high pressure over the top in the plains. Call me a crackhead but if this run continued I don't see how the LP could go north.
 
tennessee storm said:
Just not quite in the nam s deadly range just yet
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This is true. But, the changes that led to the end of run solution were evident by 60 hours and arguably 48 hours. So if for those rooting for a more southern solution, this run was a good start to the 12z suite.
 
I really feel like this has been happening often. The global showing a super amped storm. Then the short range models come out and aren’t near as amped. Still too early to trust the NAM though.


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SD said:
Nam is stronger with the wave moving through the ne and compressing the flow more on the EC as well better chance to channel and elongate the upper wave there which is a good thing
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I agree, but I don't like how there is not a good push of dry air down into CAD areas (outside of NC, that is) That push is just not super strong and the low is already into MS.
 
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Pretty evident changes here. Nam is pretty weaker and further south than the GFS. Now I'm not putting a lot of faith in the 84 hr Nam but it is something to look for on the models today as we are definitely getting out of the globals range. What I really took away from the NAM run was the changes it had with our eventual 50/50 low and HP. Those changes did happen within the NAMs wheelhouse of 30-54 Hrs and they were much better.
 
Y
tractor girl said:
Will Athens be in a better spot with damming than Atlanta?
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Yes Athens is far enough east of Atlanta to stay locked into the CAD. I live about 20 miles from Athens and we are in a good spot usually during CAD events....of course we seem to be right on the north/south line of what precip we get though. I wish we were another 40 or 50 miles north though ?
 
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