Morning Folks..
Disco from KILM..
High pressure nosing in from the northeast on Saturday while a
potent trough dives south into the Ark-La-Tex.
The wedge will keep highs stuck in the low to mid 40s north of I-95 while southern areas
see upper 40s.
Saturday night as the upper low crosses the Gulf States its initial surface low will be directly underneath the upper
low.
At the same time height falls and strengthening warm advection
cause falling pressure off the Southeast coast and POPs will be
rising.
The 00Z guidance suite is showing some semblance of coming
towards a solution, but at this time it seems that none of them
probably have the evolution of the low level features correct.
The GFS probably looks the most suspect in its (new) depiction of a dual-
centered low though it has some faint support from the Canadian. The
EC solution indicates that the coastal low immediately comes to
dominate especially by 12Z Sunday.
The aforementioned congealing of just about all guidance is for a slightly slower progression as well
as a storm track closer to the coast. For our CWA this means that the opportunity for wintry precip has decreased.
At this time it looks like what may start as light rain early on will then change to
a chance for wintry precip as the wetbulb process causes temperatures to fall, especially inland.
The closer track suggests that this window may be small before the warm air aloft overwhelms
the system and most of the event is a cold rain, and possibly a
substantial drought-relieving one at that.
It is worth stressing however that this is only one model run and there still appears to
be an increasing chance for a significant ice storm SOMEWHERE in the
Carolinas.
