FV3 hi-res really nails Greensboro NC west with a pre snow would be nice to get 1-2” before the precip even reaches Atlanta Georgia
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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs
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Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
Does anyone have the 18z EPS? Did it pretty much match the OP?
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James, I don't remember the synoptic setup, but I think you're right this "pre-event" was a complete surprise down there. Think everyone was focused on the real event just after that, which I think performed as expected.
SimeonNC
Member
I feel like the NC side of the CLT metro will be saved by sleet, not to mention as I said earlier the heavy precip will make it hard for ZR to accrue, especially onto trees and other objects.
Only problem is heavy ZR can accrue much more easier when it’s in the 20s, but there is a shot sleet saves us for sure
Clem282340
Member
Does the euro have a better handle on this storm better than the other model seems to me it keeps on showing the same thing over and over the last few runs
D
Deleted member 609
Guest
Yea heavy zr at 31.5 might not accrue.. but at 26 on top of a little snow/sleet it will.
BelmontWX79
Member
The 2002 ice storm broke the record for power outages in North Carolina that was previously held by Hugo.
Jessy89
Member
I would lean more towards the euro yes. Based on how it’s performed in years past
SC_Wildcat
Member
iGRXY
Member
HRRR is weaker and faster than the 18z NAM. Okay will see how the 0Z NAM looks here shortly
SimeonNC
Member
Wind chills are gonna be insane during this event lol.
Justin Buchinsky
Member
Have to wonder how many stand a chance at brief blizzard conditions as the LLJ moves north.
Sadly the same LLJ is responsible for rapid warming of our mid-levels courtesy on stonk WAA
Sadly the same LLJ is responsible for rapid warming of our mid-levels courtesy on stonk WAA
NWMSGuy
Member
Last frame of the HRRR:
BufordWX
Member
HRRR was trying for something on Saturday up in North Carolina.
rburrel2
Member
Hrrr has a wave across the Great Lakes that’s going to keep our storm suppressed, imo. Weird feature that I haven’t seen on other modeling.
SimeonNC
Member
Kinda bullish on the snow/sleet amounts lol
MichaelJ
Member
The KGSO profile of the storm has changed drastically, here is the latest
Here is the one earlier
Here is the one earlier
bigstick10
Member
Most of you guys were not even here, or your parents, in January 1973. Atlanta got obliterated by an ice storm, we had no power for 11 days, it was fun at first for this 17 year old, but got old after about the 4th day. Ironically this started sat night into Sunday. And how about the blizzard a month later in central GA which dumped 15-24 inches. This was a La Nina year as well.
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Not good for the Raleigh to Boone 421 corridor anything on Saturday would wash away treatments on roadways before the main feast.
Nam looks a tick more amped
Edit* now it looks like it might not be.. lol
Edit* now it looks like it might not be.. lol
NAM closed it off earlier.
It also helps moisten the lower levels. Less moisture waisted cause it gonna be dry cold ?
Justin Buchinsky
Member
Ok this is spicy... Check this out.
Euro develops an area of weak instability as our trough begins to develop a negative tilt and a 300mb jet streak develops (placing the comma-head region under the LFQ) . Simultaneously, our LLJ really begins to crank and approaches 60mph. The end result? The potential for slanted elevated convection capable of thundersnow/sleet/ZR combined with surface gusts perhaps approaching 40mph. This area of instability and strong synoptic forcing gradually progresses north northeastward into VA.
Euro develops an area of weak instability as our trough begins to develop a negative tilt and a 300mb jet streak develops (placing the comma-head region under the LFQ) . Simultaneously, our LLJ really begins to crank and approaches 60mph. The end result? The potential for slanted elevated convection capable of thundersnow/sleet/ZR combined with surface gusts perhaps approaching 40mph. This area of instability and strong synoptic forcing gradually progresses north northeastward into VA.
Stormlover
Member
18Z Euro mean
iGRXY
Member
NAM closed off faster but it actually looks weaker and it’s definitely further east
Loganville Winter
Member
My brother was born in Atlanta on January 12th, 1973. My parents talk about getting to the hospital that day every time we have winter weather in Atlanta.
Jessy89
Member
Nam looks a tick colder at 42
Hour 36. Little further south with the low. 
ticks/changes in energy and guessing with this storm from what it looks early has been harder then usual, really just a weird feel to tracking a northern stream wave becoming a Miller B, lol, this is a first
Benholio
Member
And I guess a tick stronger and the high is a tick weaker. But such small differences not sure it's significant
MichaelJ
Member
This did not make sense to me until I looked closer, the latest was from the last GFS run while the bottom graph was from the NAM 18Z, there is the difference, my bad for not checking closer
NWMSGuy
Member
I believe HRRR had it just north in southern AR at the same hour.
1. Per @dsaur, temperatures were 32 on the Buckhead bank thermometer he was watching and official records had it no colder than 30-31 for the coldest for the entire January 1973 storm.
2. 1-2/1973 was during El Niño, not La Niña.
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iGRXY
Member
Ughh I think it’s a bit south lol
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I feel a 2014!!!
Jessy89
Member
Gulf of Mexico at 48