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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

Here is the latest output for KGSO

prec.png
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
For people in central NC it’s certainly interesting the NAM kept the low east and there for we went from 28 to 32 to then 36 as we peaked there. That wedge gets any more staying power or that low is slightly further East when it makes that move up the coast .. there will be a defined area that stays below freezing and depicting that will be hard at this stage
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This was a cold run for MBY. Never got above freezing. We’ll see.
 
BullCityWx said:
This was a cold run for MBY. Never got above freezing. We’ll see.
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We’ve all seen this movie before. The trends over the week have been less and less and less snow. The story will be “warm nose string than forecasted” let’s be real here. If ice storms are your thing, you might have fun depending on location.
 
SouthGarnerSleet said:
For NC, this is a mountain special, foothill mixed bag, piedmont ice storm and a heart break for the southern CLT and RDU metro areas per normal.
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Wouldn't say that just yet. There will be more changes on the way..... maybe good, maybe not. We will know one way or the other by tomorrow this time.
 
BufordWX said:
Looking at the NBM shows some reasons for why they put the watch where so far. The 2 inch+ area matches up somewhat with the current watch. I’m very interested to see where we go with the next set of models.View attachment 105155
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That makes sense. Pretty paltry and doesn’t warrant advisory.


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SimeonNC said:
Charlotte is probably gonna stay below freezing with temperatures in the peak being in the mid-20s.
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Yeah.. I’m thinking right now the city and the SE parts of the metro area are gonna be about 80/20 with IP/ZR for a lot of the storm. With temps down into the 20s, that’s perfect for accumulate quickly depending on intensity and just enough ZR to make like hard concrete
 
Stephenb888 said:
I know this will probably get moved to another thread but after the last couple of model trends I’m not sure why we are under a winter storm watch. It’s clearly trending to rain for those south of 85. Warmer temps each run.
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Stephen, it’s not going to rain. That shallow cold air would never allow it. No one is arguing IF the region is going to get frozen precipitation. The only questions up in the air currently are “What type of frozen precip?” and “How much?”

This is a major winter storm. We haven’t seen one like this in a very long time.
 
Chazwin said:
Yeah.. I’m thinking right now the city and the SE parts of the metro area are gonna be about 80/20 with IP/ZR for a lot of the storm. With temps down into the 20s, that’s perfect for accumulate quickly depending on intensity and just enough ZR to make like hard concrete
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Tomorrow we will definitely have a better understanding of what is going to fall where. I will say this if ZR accumulations increase, at all we're going to have some serious issues. Really hoping we can get a good thump of snow before and afterward though. Either way, with the wind that's coming with this system I definitely expect some power outages and tree damage. Especially, if ZR amounts go up.
 
iGRXY said:
Please stop this already. It’s tiresome
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The strength of the CAD will be everything with this. If it is strong enough we will get freezing rain in much of NC and SC even if the low center went west of the apps. This will not be like the 2017, or 2018 systems IF that high is there. Snow would be north of us of course with an inland low track, but we WOULD have ZR over a large area. Those other systems were more of a rain versus snow/sleet scenario and generally the boundary was I-85. IF we have CAD the freezing line will end up WELL south of there, perhaps to CAE, Augusta, and ATL. I may be wrong but my gut feeling says we have CAD so we need to be ready for ice over a large area on Sunday.
 
ryan1234 said:
Tomorrow we will definitely have a better understanding of what is going to fall where. I will say this if ZR accumulations increase, at all we're going to have some serious issues. Really hoping we can get a good thump of snow before and afterward though. Either way, with the wind that's coming with this system I definitely expect some power outages and tree damage. Especially, if ZR amounts go up.
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This thing has serious trouble written all over it for many of us I'm afraid. If we can not get snow, I'm hoping for sleet rather than ice.
 
Cad Wedge NC said:
Wouldn't say that just yet. There will be more changes on the way..... maybe good, maybe not. We will know one way or the other by tomorrow this time.
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If that CAD high is there ice will be a big story all the way to Columbia. Your area should still get snow and sleet regardless. No ZR there i so not think.
 
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superjames1992 said:
if there’s one thing you can take to the bank, it’s that models overdo wind gusts. It’ll be gusty, but that seems excessive.
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Usually, but the last time they were modeled a couple of weeks ago we got close here. Hopefully we go back to form this time with the winds and they are indeed not that strong.
 
Question-

What could cause the warm nose to be less potent?

I remember models usually taking a northwest jog before go-time, and I was wondering if the low had less interaction with the GoM, would the warm nose be as potent?


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njbarrineau said:
Question-

What could cause the warm nose to be less potent?

I remember models usually taking a northwest jog before go-time, and I was wondering if the low had less interaction with the GoM, would the warm nose be as potent?


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Either a less amped system or the L being closer to the coast for the upstate of South Carolina. The L brings upper level heat with it
 
njbarrineau said:
Question-

What could cause the warm nose to be less potent?

I remember models usually taking a northwest jog before go-time, and I was wondering if the low had less interaction with the GoM, would the warm nose be as potent?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Most of the time we don’t even see a warm nose modeled and it still verifies having one. The fact it’s modeled so strong should be a flag for most that it’s gonna be icy there is really no looking back at this point ?
 
My first call snow/sleet map, I went on the slighty lower side vs models/NWS offices. given the chances of cutting down/warm nose, however, I do think many areas along 85 start out as snow including CLT/GSP/GSO, and even areas like Raleigh could have a quick shot at some snow/then to sleet longer. I have a black dashed line for bust potential if dynamical cooling is very successful in keeping front end snow longer, however I eventually think this switches to sleet and there could even be a couple of inches of sleet in some spots, as you get in the foothills/upper part of the SC upstate into NE GA snow totals increase given there are in a better spot/axis where colder 850s can hold longer, I do however even expect those areas to change to IP. the mountains/VA around RNK I think score big in this setup, the only thing I could possibly see going wrong here is the mid level dry slot aloft passing over and cutting Down on snow totals for the NC mountains/VA
C58EDB2D-4126-4716-AAC8-50EDB296EC80.jpeg

Now for the ice map, while I normally see ice being cut down by sleet lasting longer, I think this setup is a little bit different imo, the SFC low as soon as it enters C/ENC hooks back a bit and delivers a very large warm nose in the Piedmont of NC/upstate of SC, which I think takes things over to freezing rain for a solid 3-6 hours, this could cause some big ice accretion, especially around the NC/SC border into Charlotte, damaging impacts from the ice appear likely (esp in the dashed line), esp with there being some wind in this setup. Imo i think areas as far/east as ENC/low country of SC could see some brief ice, with Columbia SC seeing some decent icing, when it comes to the ice however, I’m on the colder camps of this setup, I do expect areas further east to change to rain however, including Raleigh/Fayetteville 55B1AA93-EB88-46A4-901C-B8435EEE2DB7.jpeg
 
njbarrineau said:
Question-

What could cause the warm nose to be less potent?

I remember models usually taking a northwest jog before go-time, and I was wondering if the low had less interaction with the GoM, would the warm nose be as potent?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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1. ULL not closing off until it gets close to the SE which would keep it further south as it moves over is basically the best and most ideal for the whole system.
2. FGEN out ahead of the system causing more unexpected precip helping lock in the CAD earlier and crashing the column allowing more snow earlier until the warm nose eventually takes over.

Those are probably the easiest and most realistic solutions considering how much time is left for trends.
 
BirdManDoomW said:
Most of the time we don’t even see a warm nose modeled and it still verifies having one. The fact it’s modeled so strong should be a flag for most that it’s gonna be icy there is really no looking back at this point
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I always expect it, whether it shows up on models or not. It reminds me of Cousin Eddy from Christmas Vacation. Uninvited but shows up anyway, and a pain in the a$$ once it’s here.


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Not sure if anybody has posted the RAH briefing. One thing they show is a stronger hold of cold air from Raleigh westward. But they also don't show the high amounts of wintery precip some of the models are showing; which goes to the point that models tend to overdue amounts (especially freezing rain).

 
Myfrotho704_ said:
My first call snow/sleet map, I went on the slighty lower side vs models/NWS offices. given the chances of cutting down/warm nose, however, I do think many areas along 85 start out as snow including CLT/GSP/GSO, and even areas like Raleigh could have a quick shot at some snow/then to sleet longer. I have a black dashed line for bust potential if dynamical cooling is very successful in keeping front end snow longer, however I eventually think this switches to sleet and there could even be a couple of inches of sleet in some spots, as you get in the foothills/upper part of the SC upstate into NE GA snow totals increase given there are in a better spot/axis where colder 850s can hold longer, I do however even expect those areas to change to IP. the mountains/VA around RNK I think score big in this setup, the only thing I could possibly see going wrong here is the mid level dry slot aloft passing over and cutting Down on snow totals for the NC mountains/VA
View attachment 105170

Now for the ice map, while I normally see ice being cut down by sleet lasting longer, I think this setup is a little bit different imo, the SFC low as soon as it enters C/ENC hooks back a bit and delivers a very large warm nose in the Piedmont of NC/upstate of SC, which I think takes things over to freezing rain for a solid 3-6 hours, this could cause some big ice accretion, especially around the NC/SC border into Charlotte, damaging impacts from the ice appear likely (esp in the dashed line), esp with there being some wind in this setup. Imo i think areas as far/east as ENC/low country of SC could see some brief ice, with Columbia SC seeing some decent icing, when it comes to the ice however, I’m on the colder camps of this setup, I do expect areas further east to change to rain however, including Raleigh/Fayetteville View attachment 105171
Click to expand...
Really good map. This entire system is high bust potential both high and low depending on how much front end snow we get and if the column can fight the warm nose longer.
 
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