• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

Sheesh

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_11.png
 
every weather model site has slightly different snowfall algorithms BUT the differences in outputs for the exact same model run are extraordinarily large. marginal thermals, mixing issues, etc really giving the algorithms a hard time

for example, the 18z GFS for here shows...
tropical tidbits: 2"
college of dupage: 8.4" (10:1), 4.7" (kuchera)
pivotal weather: 5.8"
weatherbell: 6.4"

buyer beware lol
 
njbarrineau said:
Even when one is modeled, I feel like it hardly ever makes it over the mountains. I wish it would though!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

Idk about that. In the December 2018 storm I had a solid 3 inches at the end of that storm from an ULL. They have potential in these kinds of storms


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Not really buying the back end snow in much of NC/SC outside the mountains. we need the upper level low further south for me to bite on the backend snow, DGZs are dried up while ptype maps are trying to show snow, I’m more intrigued by front end snow then I am back end snow atm E98F6B75-B630-4ED3-A247-D4990B7D02E0.png9F517CA5-79E3-48C8-9919-0CB476A3F1C1.png
 
cyclogent said:
every weather model site has slightly different snowfall algorithms BUT the differences in outputs for the exact same model run are extraordinarily large. marginal thermals, mixing issues, etc really giving the algorithms a hard time

for example, the 18z GFS for here shows...
tropical tidbits: 2"
college of dupage: 8.4" (10:1), 4.7" (kuchera)
pivotal weather: 5.8"
weatherbell: 6.4"

buyer beware lol
Click to expand...
Very interesting…..might explain why the snowfall totals for places like Chattanooga and Dalton weren’t even close for January 2nd storm
 
BirdManDoomW said:
For further clarification. It’s often under modeled and creates headaches when people try to get groceries the day before the storm. Why does this matter for the rest of us you ask? It can help build and lock that CAD in. View attachment 104957
Click to expand...
We had that feature on the big 96 storm. Several inches out in front of the main show. ?
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Not really buying the back end snow in much of NC/SC outside the mountains. we need the upper level low further south for me to bite on the backend snow, DGZs are dried up while ptype maps are trying to show snow, I’m more intrigued by front end snow then I am back end snow atm View attachment 105137View attachment 105138
Click to expand...

Agreed, once the storm gets to the nc coast I think it's likely done. We usually get most if not all of our qpf when storms are to our sw and se imo.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Not really buying the back end snow in much of NC/SC outside the mountains. we need the upper level low further south for me to bite on the backend snow, DGZs are dried up while ptype maps are trying to show snow, I’m more intrigued by front end snow then I am back end snow atm View attachment 105137View attachment 105138
Click to expand...
And the chances at front end snow are dwindling quickly
1642113141138.png
 
BufordWX said:
It is weird to me that they have a whole tier of counties further southwest in the impact expected tier as opposed to the watch. I’m gonna bet it gets expanded tomorrow morning.
Click to expand...
Yep. Playing the waiting game which I think is smart with so much uncertainty. We are still like 54 hours out anyways. I agree another strip will be added overnight if things hold.
 
I’m so confused one local met says wintry precipitation another say all rain, another 1 degree is all it takes and doesn’t know, if any of you could post maps for precipitation in the 29821 and 30809 zip I would truly appreciate it. TIA Raine
 
DopplerWx said:
And the chances at front end snow are dwindling quickly
View attachment 105145
Click to expand...

This looks way to moist to me, many models at this time have a large dry layer in the low levels/sfc, which is the main driver in dynamical cooling/front end snow setups. There’s one that doesn’t look like the others. This to me looks like the OP GFS underestimating the damming setup, this is important because Virga falling on low level dry air temporarily counteracts the progression of warm air advection via dynamical cooling, the GFS is very moist and wouldn’t allow such a setup, it’s a huge outlier 413B4317-11F2-4C5F-A741-F179A8D50988.png356B6A8B-8D34-42D5-82A2-04F2537D565E.pngB95825E2-6CB2-4AB0-971F-2F1DE9FFF25F.pngFD8EAB65-A47B-4C10-8A29-4C7415470220.png95E8980E-BCF8-4B97-8220-137BB5E422FA.png
 
Feel free to move to the call maps thread but here's my general thoughts for this storm.

Mountain and Foothill areas(Asheville, Boone to about Morganton, Lenoir, Wilkesboro along with extreme NW SC and NE GA): 8"+ Snow, mixing may be possible but seems unlikely

Northern and Western Piedmont(Shelby, Lincolnton, Hickory, Statesville to just W of Greensboro and Upstate SC north of 85): 4-8" of snow, .5" of sleet, glaze of ZR. this could bust either higher or lower for snow.

CLT Metro and Upstate SC along and south of 85(Gastonia, Rock Hill, Fort Mill, Huntersville, Davidson, Concord, ect.): 1-3"of snow, .5-2" of sleet, and .10-.25"+ of ZR. Going conservative on ZR due to my belief that sleet will be the dominant p-type in the CLT metro along with the fact that heavy ZR does not accrue very well and most models have the ZR being very heavy.

Northern Midlands of SC and Eastern Piedmont of NC(Lancaster, Pageland, Raleigh-Durham, ect.): .10-.25"+ of ZR, possible changeover to rain. I feel like this area could bust higher for ZR if the CAD proves deeper and stronger, if not then a changeover to rain might happen.
 
Jrips2710 said:
Yep. Playing the waiting game which I think is smart with so much uncertainty. We are still like 54 hours out anyways. I agree another strip will be added overnight if things hold.
Click to expand...

You gotta wonder though. The GFS isn’t impressive for metro ATL outside of the areas currently under watches. Also the ZR threat appears diminished. That may induce some healthy skepticism.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Regardless of tentative accumulations, models are pointing out an area encompassing the CLT metro that has the highest probability for the most ZR. Does Charlotte look to stay below freezing for the duration of the entire storm? If so this may spell trouble for roads with ZR and IP.
 
Something to remember not that it's always proven to be right because well, we're in the south. And winter weather is hard to come by, in general. In the beginning, this storm was originally going to be a CAD region storm. With the exception of the Upper NW TN Valley into Northern Arkansas. Then things progressed and we started to see a lot more of us added to the prospects of a major winter storm. Now that we're closer in, expectations have been tempered across most of the south after the latest models. Not that it has anything to do with final outcome, but more often than not, models tend to overdue snow, ice, etc then reality sets in. And more often than not, sometimes the original modeling comes out being correct. Just amounts and exact locations vary. Just my 2 cents though. Take it or leave it. But I really do wish everyone luck. Really hope we can all be pleasantly surprised! ?
 
Cad Wedge NC said:
You will be right more times than not if you take the Nam, EURO, and CMC blend. Let's just see what the 0z suite has to say.
Click to expand...
I haven’t bought into the GFS the last 2 days… I’m especially not going to worry about it’s thermals when we’re so close to being able to follow that on the NAM and HRRR
 
Cadi40 said:
Regardless of tentative accumulations, models are pointing out an area encompassing the CLT metro that has the highest probability for the most ZR. Does Charlotte look to stay below freezing for the duration of the entire storm? If so this may spell trouble for roads with ZR and IP.
Click to expand...
Charlotte is probably gonna stay below freezing with temperatures in the peak being in the mid-20s.
 
Firsthand Weather said they think they will see a shift to the south again.. They put out a map, but say it's conservative and probably will need to adjust south.

Video posted in their supporter group.
 
Jrips2710 said:
Yep. Playing the waiting game which I think is smart with so much uncertainty. We are still like 54 hours out anyways. I agree another strip will be added overnight if things hold.
Click to expand...
Looking at the NBM shows some reasons for why they put the watch where so far. The 2 inch+ area matches up somewhat with the current watch. I’m very interested to see where we go with the next set of models.6B150812-1C3F-4C8E-8B0B-7D341D5B682A.png
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top