Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

[BirdManDoomW]

Won’t see any changes from me every run. Still going with Mount Rogers, Virginia for this storm! May head up that way Friday as my snow spot winner. Charlotte NC is gonna be very tricky uptown may see 1-3” snow while the city is much less due to ice and rain. To be even more specific, the have and have nots with the ground being white or not is likely to be in Mecklenburg County. Either way, many on this board will score with a mixed bag. I don’t think a widespread ice storm will occur either, it’s likely to be a thin strip of counties over upstate SC and north-east Georgia perhaps stretching north east into Huntersville NC off i77.

 

[Storm5]

When does the 18z euro run


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[LovingGulfLows]

If NAVGEM has this it’s a slam dunk.


View attachment 104045View attachment 104046

Well developed deform band on this model.

 

[LukeBarrette]

Won’t see any changes from me every run. Still going with Mount Rogers, Virginia for this storm! May head up that way Friday as my snow spot winner. Charlotte NC is gonna be very tricky uptown may see 1-3” snow while the city is much less due to ice and rain. To be even more specific, the have and have nots with the ground being white or not is likely to be in Mecklenburg County. Either way, many on this board will score with a mixed bag. I don’t think a widespread ice storm will occur either, it’s likely to be a thin strip of counties over upstate SC and north-east Georgia perhaps stretching north east into Huntersville NC off i77.

Might wanna move a tad east for the heaviest snow axis

 

[jrips27]

When does the 18z euro run


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It’s going right now. Out to 33

 

[Showmeyourtds]

When does the 18z euro run


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I didn’t realize the Euro ran off hours. Is this new?

 

[Snowfan]

I didn’t realize the Euro ran off hours. Is this new?

Euro has been doing 18z runs for about a few years.

 

[ryan1234]

Won’t see any changes from me every run. Still going with Mount Rogers, Virginia for this storm! May head up that way Friday as my snow spot winner. Charlotte NC is gonna be very tricky uptown may see 1-3” snow while the city is much less due to ice and rain. To be even more specific, the have and have nots with the ground being white or not is likely to be in Mecklenburg County. Either way, many on this board will score with a mixed bag. I don’t think a widespread ice storm will occur either, it’s likely to be a thin strip of counties over upstate SC and north-east Georgia perhaps stretching north east into Huntersville NC off i77.

Well, there ya go folks. We now officially have a dependable forecast that we can all safely rely on. Thank you Birdman, for all you do...

 

[Ollie Williams]

I didn’t realize the Euro ran off hours. Is this new?

The Euro only runs to 90hrs at 18z and 06z. The Euro Control/Ensembles run to 144 hrs during those times.

 

[NCSNOW]

When does the 18z euro run


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Ens is like 745
Op only goes to 90 at 7pm

 

[NCSNOW]

Also the gfs op just had some big upgrade, but the gefs hasnt yet. FYI

 

[jrips27]

18z Euro looks like it would have been more amped than 12z. Only goes out to 90

 

[BullCityWx]

Well, there ya go folks. We now officially have a dependable forecast that we can all safely rely on. Thank you Birdman, for all you do...

Wait, Uptown is 1-3” while the city is safe? Have they moved uptown since I moved to durham?

 

[accu35]

18z Euro looks like it would have been more amped than 12z. Only goes out to 90

Is this good?

 

[jrips27]

Is this good?

Probably not if you were close to the edge at 12z. My guess is it would result in a slightly further north storm track compared to the 12z euro

 

[packfan98]

Is this good?

Depends on your region so hard to say. It could result in a more western track up the coast like the GFS. Wait an hour for the eps for more information.

 

[mydoortotheworld]

Suppressed solutions continue to appear on GEFS which puts my mind at ease. Can we say the holy words “We toss!” for 18z OP??? Lol

 

[ryan1234]

Wait, Uptown is 1-3” while the city is safe? Have they moved uptown since I moved to durham?

Yeah, I was definitely being sarcastic to the world-famous Birdman. It made no sense once so ever which is what caused me to respond. Even while battling strep and possibly Covid. Anyways, I still stand by my original statement that there is still way too much time to go. Especially when narrowing accumulations by 2.4 miles...

 

[Myfrotho704_]

 

[Jessy89]

Suppressed solutions continue to appear on GEFS which puts my mind at ease. Can we say the holy words “We toss!” for 18z OP??? Lol

No we don’t toss because the OP definitely a scenario. However we don’t lean heavily on the OP either because the essambles still hold a lot of weight.


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