The track of the Icon is about perfect if you want 4-6” from BHM to Huntsville. The 500mb low runs right down I20.
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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs
- Thread starter SD
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iGRXY
Member
GFS is going try it’s damndest to amp up the ULL.
Why is the GFS so much more bleaker with dews /damming strength
Snowflowxxl
Member
Gonna be another backend snow for AL, GA
I would bet considering it's just off on Temp profile and transfer the Ensembles will probably be really sweet actually
Didn't it have problems with other CAD events?
Give it time. Hopefully it will ease about 100 miles south.
I don’t understand this track in the face of such strong CAD. It doesn’t make sense to me. Is that even possible? It might just be the weenie in me, but I don’t see how the CAD wouldn’t displace the surface low further S/E?
iGRXY
Member
GFS resolution has never been good with CAD. Even with the upgrade it’s clearly still horrid
Downeastnc
Member
Yeah no matter what the models show a low that strong right up the 95 corridor is not going to work for NC east of I 77....
Yeah the backside event on this isn't too bad... 1-2 inches possible across AL/GA north of I-20
GaSnowhound
Member
Ummm yeah……I’ll take this with no argument for Atl East and Northwards. Also….Dawgs may be skating down that Natty parade route?
And usually the Euro is usually better with these. GFS is just the GFS.
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You know, atmosphere is pretty saturated early on Saturday Afternoon.
Showmeyourtds
Member
I don’t understand goofy…at all. The LP stops off to record at Fame Studios in one frame & then transfers over to Albany the next. Crazy stuff
GeorgiaGirl
Member
I'm more interested in what the GEFS is showing temp wise at this point instead of the GFS, but...there was a tiny baby step toward it being colder I think at the surface.
So close to being something more. Just needed 1-2 degrees colder. But I definitely like the trend over like 3 runs.
Would just be some silly rates
Snowflowxxl
Member
The one thing that gives it some credence is that the wave is strong and going negative tilt....that, and given this track here, it does make sense to run the sfc low inland of the coast even with the damming. But the GFS is stronger and farther west with the wave compared to others I believe
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Plenty to work with...
iGRXY
Member
I think we are letting our imby stain our reasoning for looking at models.
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GaSnowhound
Member
Prbly a dumb question but does this take into account ratios lost to zr/ip or is this just liquid equivalent sn at 10:1
It's almost always the last to latch on to damming strength IMO
Boone!!! Maybe meet Cantore for the the third time? 
December 9, 2018, Boone NC. 1st meeting was Melbourne Beach FL, circa Floyd 1999. He did remember me.
December 9, 2018, Boone NC. 1st meeting was Melbourne Beach FL, circa Floyd 1999. He did remember me.
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NCSNOW
Member
You can cut this in half and its still devestating. Course I dont buy gfs track, soloution
iGRXY
Member
CAD is such a great thing to have to supply cold air east of the mountains but it is a major pain trying to watch on models leading up. You’re basically having to rely on previous CAD events to have a strong knowledge of what to expect for future ones like this storm here. Globals just aren’t very reliable due to how bad they are when dealing with CAD. We truly don’t have any idea where the snow and ice line is going to set up until we get probably closer to 24 hours from the storm. It could be anywhere from I40 to well south of I85 at this point.
Is this good.Center of the ULL now south of ATL on the ICON ?
iGRXY
Member
GEFS is south and colder at 850
njbarrineau
Member
I don’t buy that one with the track of the low at the moment. That looks more reminiscent of a cutter, not the hybrid A/B that looks to be evolving.
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Yes if you like snow.
iGRXY
Member
GEFS is actually a lot more south and looks more like a hybrid Miller A/B with the look of a Miller B quickly going away
Significantly more south little less amped too, interesting...
Snownut
Member
I think the GFS is out in left Field, it's the only Model showing the L trying to cut up into that Strong a CAD. No way I'm buying that Track. I think that's why the other Models is more in line with each other and Why the Pros are leaning toward the EURO solution
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00z vs 18z GFS ens