More times than not the confluence lifts out earlier than it appeared at D7. More times than not, these systems amp more than they appear at D7. More times than not, the track ends up farther north and west of the way it appeared at D7. Just playing the odds, once you start seeing hints/signs/signals of a robust system, you can usually count on those things happening. In those cases, the ensemble mean does not jerk way left like the op does. But it will tend to drift in that direction and get there eventually.
But none of that guarantees anything here. I have a concern that the degree of CAD is still being underestimated, even as cold as it looks now. Again, going by the odds, that's a decent bet. I also have strong reservations, given the aforementioned CAD, that a low is going to plow into it. Impossible? No. But likely? I don't see it right now.
I hate going from a ULL/dynamic driven all snow event to a Miller B or Miller B hybrid situation. My expectation is for a lot of ice and slop, the way it looks now. It seems most likely that we're going to see a lot of frozen precipitation. I just wish it was going to be predominately snow for a change. The odds of that scenario have gone down over the last 24 hours, IMO. Can it come back? Sure. If we had a strong west-based -NAO, I'd be much more enthusiastic about that probability. Since we don't, the first paragraph outcome seems reasonable to me.
Not panicking or throwing in the towel or jumping ship or bittercasting or whatever. We're probably going to get a significant winter storm. Tracking it with everyone is fun. This is what we wait all year for.