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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

Wild Weather Monger said:
When a weenie hasn't had a decent winter storm in his backyard in a few years, the said weenie looks for optimism wherever it may be found.
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Yeah…..I’m riding the weenie wagon with you Monger! Been a minute and more shaftings than I care to recant!!
 
snowlover91 said:
Looking at 7h and 850 levels, it definitely took a nice tick S and SE. Quicker 850 transfer as well. How quickly the transfer occurs will be key For many.View attachment 104649
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Yeah the how fast the old system dies will mean if some areas(MS/AL)go from a dusting to 2-4”.
 
Obviously, the 18z GFS run was much better in terms of snow potential for the western/northern areas of the Carolinas but that warm nose punch is going to be strong and can't be ignored. Unfortunately, it usually wins out.
 
Ollie Williams said:
Ice is almost always over modeled 90% of the time for two reasons.
1. Temperatures are too marginal, and ice cannot accreate.
2. Models do a poor job with Ptype, and it ends up being sleet.

I definitely think #2 can be the this this time around if we’re looking at the same setup.
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I’ll just speak for Atlanta and much of N GA, not NC. I don’t think this is true for there based on my decades of closely following and experiencing Atlanta icestorms. The wedge most often overperforms there and makes what looks like rain and 33 on the models to be 32 or colder with ZR. Also, based on ATL history, ZR with temps mainly 31-32 has been devastating in the past. In addition, ATL has had more major ZR storms than major sleetstorms. That’s my 2 cents fwiw.
 
WxGSO said:
I don't think you are going to see much in the way of major shifts in the models going forward. Granted, 50mi here or there can make a HUGE difference in terms of precip type for many. It's going to come down to how strong the CAD is and when the transfer of energy occurs.
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Exactly… this what I was believing last night when the 0z gave that ridiculous solution of transferring to a new surface low in the NC Piedmont in the middle of a CAD. The transfer should take place around the base of the CAD where you see the sharpest temperature gradient and that should with this set up should form the new surface just to the west of Savannah. Now there likely is still an inland track but it’s running inland closer to the coast line… this doesn’t take away the mixing issues or the potential for a crippling ice storm in some areas, but it does open things to get a greater front end thump of snow and a possible deform band on the backside
 
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GaWx said:
I’ll just speak for Atlanta and much of N GA, not NC. I don’t think this is true for there based on my decades of closely following and experiencing Atlanta icestorms. The wedge most often overperforms there and makes what looks like rain and 33 on the models to be 32 or colder with ZR. Also, based on ATL history, ZR with temps mainly 31-32 has been devastating in the past. Also, ATL has had more major ZR storms than major sleetstorms.
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That's true, but it follows the conditions of condition #1. The marginal cold prevents significant icing from accreting due to the warmer temperatures. That doesn't necessarily mean that ZR isn't significant, it just isn't as much as many models would portray.
 
GaWx said:
I’ll just speak for Atlanta and much of N GA, not NC. I don’t think this is true for there based on my decades of closely following and experiencing Atlanta icestorms. The wedge most often overperforms there and makes what looks like rain and 33 on the models to be 32 or colder with ZR. Also, based on ATL history, ZR with temps mainly 31-32 has been devastating in the past. In addition, ATL has had more major ZR storms than major sleetstorms. That’s my 2 cents fwiw.
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Larry, I'm way over due for anything significant. Sleet, snow, or zr. It's been since 05 that I could sled on the streets. Lots of little events, or spring snows, but a major freeze down event, no.
 
CaryWx said:
Still going to miller-B just not over NC?
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While there is semblance of a handoff I think the primary may come out of the southern Gulf Coast, maybe transfer over GA, leveraging the Apps, Macon to Savannah or Myrtle Beach but with the tilt it is likely driving just inland. Hybrid ish
 
NCSNOW said:
This is ahead of schedule: But it happens to many times to count, almost always. as we get closer to start time for precip, it seems to always arrive earlier than forecasted by models. Reading the Metwannabe and SD talk of frontogensis early thump etc. This would help get some folks a couple hours of the good stuff, before the waa comes along to wreck the soundings upstairs.
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There is almost always a leading finger of precip, especially on the northern extent that comes in a few hours earlier and it always impacts the TN border and NC Mtns. The typical scenario is the mountains already have at least a couple of inches of snow with temps below freezing before I even get the first drops of rain or whatever in the upstate.
 
Stephenb888 said:
Just curious what does a trend eastward do for us in upstate Sc. I know it helps you guys.
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As modeled not a lot, but it does mean the dreaded westward shift has stopped that could have hurt you guys as well. That eastward shift helps more of us to the east. Of course, a south shift would help everybody by providing more snow.
 
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