Yeah…..I’m riding the weenie wagon with you Monger! Been a minute and more shaftings than I care to recant!!When a weenie hasn't had a decent winter storm in his backyard in a few years, the said weenie looks for optimism wherever it may be found.
Yeah the how fast the old system dies will mean if some areas(MS/AL)go from a dusting to 2-4”.
It usually caves to the euro solution
Exactly… this what I was believing last night when the 0z gave that ridiculous solution of transferring to a new surface low in the NC Piedmont in the middle of a CAD. The transfer should take place around the base of the CAD where you see the sharpest temperature gradient and that should with this set up should form the new surface just to the west of Savannah. Now there likely is still an inland track but it’s running inland closer to the coast line… this doesn’t take away the mixing issues or the potential for a crippling ice storm in some areas, but it does open things to get a greater front end thump of snow and a possible deform band on the backside
That's true, but it follows the conditions of condition #1. The marginal cold prevents significant icing from accreting due to the warmer temperatures. That doesn't necessarily mean that ZR isn't significant, it just isn't as much as many models would portray.
Larry, I'm way over due for anything significant. Sleet, snow, or zr. It's been since 05 that I could sled on the streets. Lots of little events, or spring snows, but a major freeze down event, no.
GEFS members Sunday morning
Man with all the high pressures this had a chance to be a thing of beauty. Make that 1036 a 1040 or bring it down 150 miles, keep our low along the coast and.. man oh man.
While there is semblance of a handoff I think the primary may come out of the southern Gulf Coast, maybe transfer over GA, leveraging the Apps, Macon to Savannah or Myrtle Beach but with the tilt it is likely driving just inland. Hybrid ish
Ending as snow looks likely per the GEFS
There is almost always a leading finger of precip, especially on the northern extent that comes in a few hours earlier and it always impacts the TN border and NC Mtns. The typical scenario is the mountains already have at least a couple of inches of snow with temps below freezing before I even get the first drops of rain or whatever in the upstate.
Lets keep these shifts going through 00z and then at 06z back to a boardwide hit as the energy is sampled how bout it?
Tennessee is going to be screwed unless we move entirely to a Miller A due to the secondary low.
As modeled not a lot, but it does mean the dreaded westward shift has stopped that could have hurt you guys as well. That eastward shift helps more of us to the east. Of course, a south shift would help everybody by providing more snow.
Tommorow morning. 12z suites should be more realistic
Part should be in the 12z Thursday balloons the other probably not until 12z Friday unless there are some Canadian locations I can't find
Depends where you live in the triangle tbh. North and Western parts a decent amount of snow, Sleet, freezing rain, south and east some snow, Sleet, freezing rain but likely changing to rain
No one really knows for sure. If the wedge is strong enough, you could see sleet or ZR. If it isn’t, probably just a cold rain with some backside snow
Solid 1-1.5” of precip for the entire SE too. Something major is coming.
Won’t be far from me then. I selected Mount Rogers, Virginia a few days ago and nothing has changed. That areas does very well with negating sleet intrusions.
Does the mean surface tracks shift east from 12z. Is their a mean 500mb vort map for gefs?
