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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

Showmeyourtds said:
Not to be a debbie-downer but there appear to be BL issues on the happy hour goof for Atlanta - I'm talkin' ITP here- Temps start @ 84hrs at 45 & doesn't get below freezing until 105 when all the moisture is gone. 1-3" colors on the accumulation maps look nice, but with temps above 32, I don't imagine that much would accumulate.

Change my mind
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I just saw accumulation last week at 35 when it was 80 the day before
 
I don't think you are going to see much in the way of major shifts in the models going forward. Granted, 50mi here or there can make a HUGE difference in terms of precip type for many. It's going to come down to how strong the CAD is and when the transfer of energy occurs.
 
Showmeyourtds said:
Not to be a debbie-downer but there appear to be BL issues on the happy hour goof for Atlanta - I'm talkin' ITP here- Temps start @ 84hrs at 45 & doesn't get below freezing until 105 when all the moisture is gone. 1-3" colors on the accumulation maps look nice, but with temps above 32, I don't imagine that much would accumulate.

Change my mind
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Easy. It’s botching the extent of the CAD. Unlike just about every other model.


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Tarheel1 said:
It doesn’t matter how cold the surface is! It’s the 850 s and 725 layer! If any of those are above zero, then no snow! It can sleet and ZR with temps in the teens!
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Yes but a colder CAD also limits how far north the LP can go north and will help really limit the warm nose coming up as far. It doesn’t play directly into the upper atmosphere temps but more do indirectly
 
Showmeyourtds said:
Not to be a debbie-downer but there appear to be BL issues on the happy hour goof for Atlanta - I'm talkin' ITP here- Temps start @ 84hrs at 45 & doesn't get below freezing until 105 when all the moisture is gone. 1-3" colors on the accumulation maps look nice, but with temps above 32, I don't imagine that much would accumulate.

Change my mind
Click to expand...

That would be great news for those that don’t want much ZR and bad news for those who want it. But I think it is too warm and that a significant ZR is more likely.
 
GaWx said:
I got you but don’t shoot the messenger ;)

Also, many wx fanatics want it whether they admit it or not. They always talk about the dreaded rain and 33 as being the worst thing, not the dreaded rain and 32 or 31.
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I'm one of those Wild Weather Mongers who adores ice. I despise sleet simply because what could have been a good snow is silly little ice pellets. If a tree falls on the house, a new roof comes in handy too. Of course, nothing beats a good coating of ice hidden under as many inches of snow as can fit! Oh, and I like canes too. Tornados, nope.
 
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