These are the maps I watched when tracking as a kid. When you start getting the dark blues you know it’s game time.
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
iGRXY
Member
ULL is sw and weaker by a smidge.
iGRXY
Member
850's are screaming this run
alfoman
Member
Through 102, the surface low is sightly slower and farther north. Likely due to a weaker push back from the high to the north. 850s are a warmer this run
Edit: This is a concerning northern trend on the GFS from 6z --> 12z--->18z. Energy finally transfers to the coast at hour 120 but the temps are much more suspect. Lots of NC ice on this run.
Edit: This is a concerning northern trend on the GFS from 6z --> 12z--->18z. Energy finally transfers to the coast at hour 120 but the temps are much more suspect. Lots of NC ice on this run.
Not great
bigstick10
Member
So what is this, GA out of it now?
Oy
Lp even further inland this run, good lord
griteater
Member
Showmeyourtds
Member
Run is looking like a whiff for areas along I-20 compared to what the Doc showed earlier
I think it follows the GFS or blends a few. Really not sure. It changes every run. Weather.gov forecast maps. It’s really all we had back then lol
Jessy89
Member
I mean this ice storm on GFS would be dangerous
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
iGRXY
Member
Basically a massive ice storm for everyone south of I40 and then even they switch over and only the mountains are left with snow.
Trends over the last 24 hours. Lord.Benholio
Member
18z GFS not much different than 12z
alfoman
Member
Absolutely not the trend you want to see from the GFS, but the ENS will be telling as to if this is a true concern or just the operational. The 0Z suite tonight should be telling as to where this is going.
Front end thump to rain for many in eastern NC
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
The JMA saves the day (for some)
Knowing that the JMA is not a good model, this 12Z very suppressed track along with its 850s and a strong wedge is a setup for at least a close call to a rare (once every 15-25 years on average) major winter storm getting close to if not all of the way to the CHS-SAV corridor as it has qpf of 1" and 850s that start at +1 to +2 C and rise to only ~+3 C. The wedge would likely keep winds mainly NE and thus not off the warmer ocean. So, if not near or just under 32, it would likely be no warmer than ~35. If wintry, the precip. would be sleet and ZR, not snow:
I see this as mere entertainment considering climo, the JMA not being a good model, and no other model showing anything similar (JMA track well south with the low forming in the W GOM off far NE MX and then tracking ENE to over C FL):
Mostly done here