Cary_Snow95
Member
ICON manages to keep RDU below freezing the entire storm...
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Storm5
Member
If you take the icon track and the gfs surface temps western tenn and northern Miss get smoked
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Michael
Member
I believe the icon only shows rain or snow
Envelope now includes PA.
WPC's latest forecast map...looks reasonable....Miller A/B Hybrid
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
2025 Supporter
I’ll bet dollars to donuts, if the storm happened verbatim as depicted on NAM run, it’s 1” of snow, and the rest ip/zr I 85 and south! Caesars head might see 8-10”
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
The trends have been crazy with this model. It may be in Jacksonville next run lol
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
That look on the ICON almost reminds me of feb 2014 with heavy snow in Charlotte > sleet > ZR > snow
Yep classic the back band building run after run .. I would think when the NAM’s get to sink their teeth into the full system they will continue to see this evolution of a deformation area of snow behind … temps would be amazing for it too 
The amount of FB posts floating around out there with crazy clown totals is unreal! Never seen anything like this. But I guess in the days of social media meteorology, everything's fair game. But, one thing's certain... lots of folks are gonna get a good snow from this.
NCSNOW
Member
Not a fan of the Icon track after surface leaves savannah. The heading north needs 1 to 2 more ticks NE. It gets to wilm, then north to G vegas, NW to Rich, before correcting Due NE
My wife was looking at a FFC graph put up about the system and said the "Models" aren't showing much anymore and my weather crazed butt looked at her and said well those "graphics" aren't actually Models so may want to look at those
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
With the trends that are occurring right now in the models. This remind me of December 2018. Maybe more snow to areas further south
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Snownut
Member
I'd bet dollars to donuts you're crazy ax Hell! I wasn't even speaking of the NAM, I'm speaking of this storm in General. It's clear to see someone across those areas will get buried!
Sent from my SM-A526U using Tapatalk
Front Royal or Winchester was my early thoughts, Brevard / Boone too, but this should be a clean hook around Florence heading NNE and maturing rapidly through 40N.
Yeah but the that surface LP takes a weird track once on shore around cape lookout NC. Goes due north. If it went NE we'd have more snow.
Stormlover
Member
Ryan Maue says it's a great model
GaSnowhound
Member
Could someone speak to the potential to see prolonged heavy sleet instead of zero from Atl metro/ i20 corridor NE?? I only ask abt this bc of the advertised CAD strength. Is this just a case of cold being far too shallow to support zr bc of the Low track?? I could be very wrong w my history but seems that climo history might be supportive. Thanks in advance!
D
Deleted member 609
Guest
I can't help but think areas from spartanuburg to Winston Salem nw aren't going to get a monster from this. Not sure what happens SE from there
Cary_Snow95
Member
Out to 24 and the GFS is less amped thus far
The good storms don't care...they bring the overrunning forcing for ascent in hot and heavy
NCSNOW
Member
Thats a carbon copy of Dec 2002WPC's latest forecast map...looks reasonable....Miller A/B Hybrid
Attachments
What is the warmest the 850s rise to during the rain in the ATL area on the 0Z NAM? That would tell me something about the 2M temps and whether they’re realistic.
lj0109
Member
ICON 500MB difference from 18Z to 00Z:
GFS out to 42 looks a little better....east coast trough and our storm wave out west are closer together
GFS shortwave energy out west already looks more east, stronger western ridging
Cary_Snow95
Member
NCSNOW
Member
Kiddo is at 4300ft, Boone. Id go up if not for work Mon and 6 inches of concrete back here to come to. Not to mention heavy frzng rn scenerio close by. Although think mby will be spared worst of that.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
GFS closed off at hour 54, was open at hour 60 last run.
iGRXY
Member
850’s colder at 60. Definitely more SE with the progression
GFS out to hr66 doesn't look more suppressive along the east coast; however, the rollover ridging behind the wave is stronger and the wave is more positive tilt / and a touch south....so a bit better trend there
Yeah I like this run more, front end thump probably gonna be even better, wave slighty south, and while the TPV isn’t really trending great on the GFS, the low in the Atlantic is ticking south, which is cooling 850s via CAA
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Energy looks stronger but a touch south.
Ideally, I think most of us (outside the mountains) would like to see it a good 50-100 miles offshore of SAV instead of right onshore like that, but yeah it’s not too bad of a look, but definitely one that would changeover most of us eventually.Wow icon is very impressive. That Low is pretty perfect for the Carolinas IMO
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
GaSnowhound
Member
Yes, that’s what I’m loving! If the NAM doesn’t kill our moisture and this cold holds serve next 24 we could be in a decent spot east of Atl for once. If that wedge is as stout as advertised I think we have a good shot at seeing more sn/ip vs the zr.
Cary_Snow95
Member
lp still pretty far north on the gfs.
Yep, in the end, not much different....it was a little south, but had more amplitude on its eastern flank
Casual 998mb over Columbia
