Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

[iGRXY]

GEFS is really picking up on a deform band forming

 

[BullCityWx]

Yeah, 850 isotherm is a good 50 miles south from where it was at 18z

 

[BufordWX]

 

[iGRXY]

Still going

 

[NCSNOW]

Nice big jump, improvement on GEFS. MBY is up almost 3 inches since 12z today, past 8 now.

But the lows even futher south and cold as well

 

[BullCityWx]

Surface low on the GEFS barely cuts inside HSE.

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

This GEFS mean about to be insane for some areas


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[KyloG]

Thats a large difference inside day 4....GFS/GEFS. ?‍

A blend is usually the way to go but GFS has been amp happy for a couple of days now so can't be ignored.

 

[DopplerWx]

Wow! Op on an island for sure.

 

[GaWx]

Kind of surprised the NAM is so warm. Warning shot for much of N GA?

I just looked at the 0Z NAM 850s and see they are in the +1.5 to +5 C range from hour 75 to the end of the run at hour 84. The +5 is at the end. Based on having looked at dozens of sleet and IP events in ATL with good wedging (with the common east winds) and steady precipitation since the 1950s, that is not plain rain. It is likely mainly sleet to start in Atlanta that changes to ZR within a few hours. The NAM has mid 30s but it should be more like high 20s to near 30-31.

 

[superjames1992]

GEFS is really picking up on a deform band forming

The surface low going over Hatteras isn’t a bad look…would be nice to go a little further east offshore, but that sure beats it tracking over PVG…

 

[DopplerWx]

textbook

 

[accu35]

 

[WeatherNC]

Most of those are sub 1000mb ^

 

[accu35]

CMC much further south

 

[iGRXY]

Looking at the individual members, nearly all of them show an 85 snow storm and an I20 ice storm.

 

[Chazwin]

View attachment 104824
Still going

I’m not sure I’ve ever seen an ensemble mean as high as 8 inches for CLT more than 36 hours out.

 

[iGRXY]

View attachment 104813View attachment 104812

That is really aggressive considering we’re still 3-4 days out

 

[BullCityWx]

So it looks like snow means are a little down in areas that had a big number last run. There’s a much wider snow footprint however.

 

[Snowflowxxl]

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

CMC absolutely hammered upstate SC

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[Snowflowxxl]

 

[Deleted member 609]

Talk to me

 

[BullCityWx]

Also looks like most areas lost a third of an inch QPF

 

[MSnowAtl]

View attachment 104835

Less ice for the Metro now? I am just checking in...just came home!

 

[superjames1992]

Also looks like most areas lost a third of an inch QPF

Makes sense if the system is less amped, I suppose.

 

[DopplerWx]

some really good members here. Sunday morning

 

[KyloG]

MidAtlantic crew have to be like what the heck...

GFS/GEFS

 

[BullCityWx]

Makes sense if the system is less amped, I suppose.

I’ll make that trade. I’d rather take a safer number than shoot for the moon.

 

[Snowflowxxl]

Less ice for the Metro now? I am just checking in...just came home!

Differnt models showing different outcomes. Ice still likely

 

[MSnowAtl]

Differnt models showing different outcomes. Ice still likely

I see the low is coming south! Good backend snow for the metro Atlanta!

 

[iGRXY]

I see the drunk uncle put the bottle down and picked up the percs instead

 

[DopplerWx]

oh hell yes

 

[KyloG]

This would be a lot more believable if the op wasn't so different...nice SE trend on it's ensemble. ?‍

 

[EV/WS]

Labor Shortage! An Extradorinaiy Event is looking likely for most of the Southeast. Someone a day ago or so pointed this out.

Winston Salem will begin to brine roads beginning tomorrow morning (Thursday)

Piedmont Triad prepares for winter weather, possible snow over weekend

(WGHP) — Winter weather is on the way to the Piedmont Triad and could bring snow over the weekend. A significant winter storm is looking more and more likely, according to FOX8 Chief Meteorol…

myfox8.com

One has to wonder what happens to the response to the potential damage afterwards.

Let That Sink In. ….. Power Outage Is A Given In Our Footprint.

My most concern: The people (especially low income).

I, for one, will most definitely be helping MY NEIGHBORS wether NC, SC, GA etc ..

 

[Arcc]

The CMC is very close for 2-4” for the I20 corridor to Huntsville with higher totals across the higher locations of east AL, west GA.

 

[iGRXY]

Canadian shows sleet at 96 but sounding is snow

 

[NCSNOW]

Anyone got ukmet.

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

This is the 0z Ukie I believe.

 

[Disco_Lemonade]

Labor Shortage! An Extradorinaiy Event is looking likely for most of the Southeast. Someone a day ago or so pointed this out.

Winston Salem will begin to brine roads beginning tomorrow morning (Thursday)

Piedmont Triad prepares for winter weather, possible snow over weekend

(WGHP) — Winter weather is on the way to the Piedmont Triad and could bring snow over the weekend. A significant winter storm is looking more and more likely, according to FOX8 Chief Meteorol…

myfox8.com

One has to wonder what happens to the response to the potential damage afterwards.

Let That Sink In. ….. Power Outage Is A Given In Our Footprint.

My most concern: The people (especially low income).

I, for one, will most definitely be helping MY NEIGHBORS wether NC, SC, GA etc ..

The unfortunate reality that I may be sleeping at work this weekend is beginning to really set in... I'll tell you one thing, the hospitals are not ready.