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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

EV_WS said:
Labor Shortage! An Extradorinaiy Event is looking likely for most of the Southeast. Someone a day ago or so pointed this out.

Winston Salem will begin to brine roads beginning tomorrow morning (Thursday)

myfox8.com

Piedmont Triad prepares for winter weather, possible snow over weekend

(WGHP) — Winter weather is on the way to the Piedmont Triad and could bring snow over the weekend. A significant winter storm is looking more and more likely, according to FOX8 Chief Meteorol…
myfox8.com myfox8.com

One has to wonder what happens to the response to the potential damage afterwards.

Let That Sink In. ….. Power Outage Is A Given In Our Footprint.

My most concern: The people (especially low income).

I, for one, will most definitely be helping MY NEIGHBORS wether NC, SC, GA etc ..
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The unfortunate reality that I may be sleeping at work this weekend is beginning to really set in... I'll tell you one thing, the hospitals are not ready.
 
sn10_acc.us_se.png
 
Saw this MA thread, while nosing around.

Didn’t high risk post earlier this week that the GFS OP and ensembles are basically run off two different parameters? GFS OP was upgraded but GEFS wasn’t?
 
NCSNOW said:
Saw this MA thread, while nosing around.

Didn’t high risk post earlier this week that the GFS OP and ensembles are basically run off two different parameters? GFS OP was upgraded but GEFS wasn’t?
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I seriously doubt this storm is cutting.
 
Im not gonna have to worry about folks walking on the snow in my yard, leaving footprints, messing it up.
Cause they will be walking on white concrete. Big sleet hits off some ops tonight.
 
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NCSNOW said:
Saw this MA thread, while nosing around.

Didn’t high risk post earlier this week that the GFS OP and ensembles are basically run off two different parameters? GFS OP was upgraded but GEFS wasn’t?
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Fairly certain the GFS ENS were upgraded 1-2 years ago
 
Snowflowxxl said:
View attachment 104845
Thru 102
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I always look at clown maps with skepticism about it being really just snow. I just checked 0Z UK 850s and sure enough it suggests a good 7” or so of accum of mostly snow near ATL especially just NE of there with some sleet as opposed to this really being ZR because they are colder than 0C most of the precip with warming only to just above 0C near the end of the heaviest.
 
Oh ok. I think that was the upgrade to increase the vertical levels. No sure if they applied that to the ens or not.
 
GaWx said:
I always look at clown maps with skepticism about it being really just snow. I just checked 0Z UK 850s and sure enough it suggests a good 7” or so of accum of mostly snow near ATL especially just NE of there with some sleet as opposed to this really being ZR because they are colder than 0C most of the precip with warming only to just above 0C near the end of the heaviest.
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no doubt....temps are close to being big time event over NGA
 
Ollie Williams said:
But the GFS was upgraded last March.
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BelmontWX79 said:
Oh ok. I think that was the upgrade to increase the vertical levels. No sure if they applied that to the ens or not.
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According to Wikipedia (not a given they're right, but is more often than not), maybe you're both right?
en.wikipedia.org

Global Forecast System - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org en.wikipedia.org

On June 12, 2019, after several years of testing, NOAA upgraded the GFS with a new dynamical core, the GFDL Finite-Volume Cubed-Sphere Dynamical Core (FV3), which uses the finite volume method instead of the spectral method used by earlier versions of the GFS.

With the initial operational implementation of FV3GFS now accomplished, NOAA's Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) global modeling focus has turned towards development of the next GFS (v16) upgrade, which will include doubled vertical resolution (64 to 127 layers), more advanced physics, data assimilation system upgrades, and coupling to a NCEP's Global Wave Model using the Unified Forecast System (UFS) community model. GFSv16 was implemented on March 22, 2021.
 
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