Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

[weather nerd]

I know SLP location is pivotal, as well as the HP placement and strength. Having said that, what would lend itself to a solution like the Ukie runs from yesterday?

I think those UKMET runs AFTER they started coming North were probably sleet/zr on the snow maps. The weak suppressed runs were likely snow though. You need a traditional Miller-A traveling across North Central Florida and not trying to track inland over GA/parts of SC to get appreciable snow for the duration of the event. Basically a much less amped wave, a neutral tilt later than shown etc.

Edit: i'm speaking about the Midlands.

 

[Cary_Snow95]

 

[Ron Burgundy]

Atlanta is too warm on the NAM, rain

Low placement is $$$ for us. Huge improvement. We can sweat the thermals later.

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

Wow icon is very impressive. That Low is pretty perfect for the Carolinas IMO

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[iGRXY]

 

[ForsythSnow]

Seems like the ICON is thermally colder back deeper into GA and SC and surely not a Miller B anymore. Still transfers but this is trending toward a Miller A now as the transfer distance is decreasing.

 

[WeatherNC]

Also models are starting to pick up on the meso high in Virginia.

Nice call out, textbook for some of the SE & southern MA major events on record.

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Uhh

 

[NCSNOW]

Thats the frame ive been longing for exit right at Gawx, Savannah. Now if we could get the full transfer from ull right in this spot soon after, we will be Golden

 

[malak05]

That's going to keep

Seems like the ICON is thermally colder back deeper into GA and SC and surely not a Miller B anymore. Still transfers but this is trending toward a Miller A now as the transfer distance is decreasing.

No not at all that track is definitely a Hybrid A/B and leaning more toward A you love to see it!

 

[Deleted member 609]

This is a massive ice/sleet storm charlotte south

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

Also a pretty darn good track for Alabama and Georgia to get in on some back side snow!


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[Iceagewhereartthou]

Look at the 50/50 low trend !! Wow, and the associated 540 line moving more south View attachment 104766View attachment 104767

Awesome; and this GIF Kylo posted shows it well too. You can really see the effect that last frame has with the 50/50 closer to the coast and stronger. As soon as that comes into frame you can really see the lines crash SW! Fantastic trend!

 

[griteater]

00z RDPS at hr84...

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Warm biased icon vs Gfs same time … I am a firm believe we are not moving this wedge

 

[ATLwxfan]

Shouldn’t a a more southerly low track allow for a more intensified CAD? Curious as to why we’re not seeing that.


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[NCSNOW]

The dbz between Charlotte and Badin lake are nothing to sneeze at at hr 90

 

[Stephenb888]

This is a massive ice/sleet storm charlotte south
View attachment 104776View attachment 104777

If it’s so cold and the low is trending more south why wouldn’t it be more snow?

 

[Chandler]

 

[griteater]

^ Greensboro at 21/3 lol on RDPS

 

[KyloG]

Just a sick run of the ICON....but it's the ICON.

 

[Rain Cold]

Uhh View attachment 104773View attachment 104774

It needs to go ENE from there, but I suspect it will still try and go NNE.

 

[iGRXY]

Top is the most recent and bottom is from the 18z. Over the past few runs we are delaying the transition over another 3 hours and the LP continues to trend further and further SE.

 

[WeatherNC]

If this congeals in to a uniform low watch out, still very much on the table and starting to take that elusive look. Wow

 

[Philstorm91]

Stupid question, but I guess a more southerly track could give the potential for some flurries along the LA/MS line north of Baton Rouge? My expectations are pretty low with this storm for MBY, but I'm super excited for the potential for many of my fellow Southern Wx weather fans.

 

[ATLwxfan]

Just realized it’s not showing ZR or ip


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[Deleted member 609]

Just a sick run of the ICON....but it's the ICON.

View attachment 104783
View attachment 104785

This must have ice?

 

[iGRXY]

View attachment 104782

Is it possible to get a closer view?

 

[KyloG]

This must have ice?

Lots and lots

 

[NCSNOW]

Wow icon is very impressive. That Low is pretty perfect for the Carolinas IMO

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The benchmark for here is always jax to Savanah

 

[PARSONBROWN]

My bet is N. Ga mountains to NC mountains. Game on

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

^ Greensboro at 21/3 lol on RDPS

This ain’t no in-situ CAD … this is the real deal brute force reinforced CAD .. no way it’s being modeled to erode so quick

 

[Cary_Snow95]

00z RDPS at hr84...

Grit calm down this is a family site ? Seeing all the0z runs show single digit dews for RDU and areas around it in NC is insane. The temp drop saturday night is going to be a thing of beauty to watch unfold on the ol tempest.

 

[TheBatman]

View attachment 104772

That would be some good backside snow.

 

[RollTide18]

18z GFS gives a large portion of Alabama some snow showers Sunday afternoon

 

[LovingGulfLows]

Center of the ULL now south of ATL on the ICON ?

 

[malak05]

That would be some good backside snow.

Yeah parts of East AL and West GA I-20 north and up to the TN Border in both states take a nice wallop from the backside snow

 

[tempo47]

Any of these models trending better for any winter weather for the ATL area? I'm closer to athens but just curious i cant tell from whats being shown above?

 

[NCSNOW]

^ Greensboro at 21/3 lol on RDPS

I saw that. Dont need to be fighting virga during the guranteed snow time front end thump

 

[Cary_Snow95]

ICON manages to keep RDU below freezing the entire storm...