I thought it wasn’t that organized now. Correct me if wrong.H5 trend across the US is OTS unless it becomes a decoupled mess over the islands and drifts stallsView attachment 121522
It's sheared and possibly tilted east but it's maintained convection and convective bursts through the day. It's not in terrible shape but it's not prettyI thought it wasn’t that organized now. Correct me if wrong.
Will be worth watching as she seems to be holding a west track and is a bit further south.Interesting SW clustering of EPS members on the 0z runView attachment 121533
Looks like a good majority of the left group get distrusted and weakened by the islands while the systems that shoot the gap stay NEView attachment 121534View attachment 121535
In the short term Puerto Rico needs a hurricane warning View attachment 121537
I agree. This one could Rapidly Intensify in 6 hours from now.
Should eliminate the southern solution set if this happens.Yup they just pulled the trigger and are mentioning RI in the discussion
The upper-level environment over Fiona has improved, and deep-layer
shear is expected to be light to moderate for the next several
days. In fact, along with a favorable thermodynamic environment,
the Rapid Intensification Indices have increased, and now show a
1-in-3 chance of a 30-kt increase over the next 24 hours.
I hope that is much needed rain for PR. Sometimes we assume because its tropical they get sufficient rain. Having read articles about drought in the Amazonas, I never assume now.
I hope that is much needed rain for PR. Sometimes we assume because its tropical they get sufficient rain. Having read articles about drought in the Amazonas, I never assume now.