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Tropical Hurricane Fiona

8 am update, this part of the track is fairly stable, all models pretty much agree.... it's after this things gon get interesting or not

114915_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png
 
I believe the many of differences between the GFS and ECMWF that still exist have to do with the shear that is keeping Fiona in check. The ECMWF keeps the shear going a little longer resulting in a weaker storm and more westerly track. The GFS relaxes the shear sooner and Fiona gets more time to strengthen resulting in the quicker right turn out to sea. Have any reconnaissance missions flown or are scheduled to fly into Fiona yet?
 
metwannabe said:
Still very lopsided as the western part of the LLC still exposed but you're right, it is fighting and continues to have thunderstorm blowups right over the eastern edge of the LLC. This thing would take off in a hurry if shear relaxed and of course would also rocket ots. Still long ways to go with this one though as it continues to move west at a pretty good clip
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Something people need to consider with sheared storms like this are center reformations under the deeper convection. A Center reformation a 100 miles to the east would have a large impact on the path of the storm.

This is all based on her surviving her date intact with the Dominican Shredder.
 
smast16 said:
Something people need to consider with sheared storms like this are center reformations under the deeper convection. A Center reformation a 100 miles to the east would have a large impact on the path of the storm.

This is all based on her surviving her date intact with the Dominican Shredder.
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Hurricane Irene is a classic example of a center relocation changing everything.
 
Arcc said:
I would say the chance of center reformation right now is about zero. The high shear is probably helping it stay alive right now.
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Yeah the LLC looks fairly decent and I wouldn't expect a center relocation until interaction with the big islands.
 
Shaggy said:
Yeah the LLC looks fairly decent and I wouldn't expect a center relocation until interaction with the big islands.
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Gonna be interesting to see if it even survives the islands. If it does the GFS still driving home that there will be a fine line between rapid strengthening and shredded cheese. I’m gonna lean toward the cheese side. Those TUTTs NEVER move as fast as modeled.
 
Arcc said:
Gonna be interesting to see if it even survives the islands. If it does the GFS still driving home that there will be a fine line between rapid strengthening and shredded cheese. I’m gonna lean toward the cheese side. Those TUTTs NEVER move as fast as modeled.
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Still plenty of open scenarios past day 5. The euros threatening look had some gefs member support and the gfs quick recurve had some eps support. All in all the long term is still far from being decided.

Obviously the biggest risk is we get the into the SW Atlantic under better conditions and a strengthening storm gets blocked and runs the east coast. Still an eternity away in terms of pattern evolution being nailed down.
 
I get the consensus of discussing model runs for the topic of discussion. It’s been hilarious to read up on SM the run to run meteorologist who know what’s gonna happen 7 days out. The gulf to OTS.
 
Shaggy said:
Gfs is bombs away and a quicker recurve so far through 129hrs
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Not saying that I know what will be the end result but how is the modeling compared to reality? How close is it to vertically stacking? How long before shear winds down? I like to model watch myself but I think it trends west. Now how far west remains to be seen if at all.
 
If you notice on the 0z euro the heat ridge has moved west to near the 4 corners allowing the Bermuda ridge to pop back up and its a legitimate threat500wh.conus (1).png

Until fiona stops out running its convection, shear decreases and it clears the islands I wouldn't put a ton of stock in mile to mile run to run changes and differences in the ops. The 6z euro changed 21mb with the system at 90hrs vs the 0z. It's volatile right now
 
SD said:
Cmc is going east as well. A ridge centered over the arklatex isn't a favorable spot for a SE coast US hit and would favor OTS or Tex/Mx. Now if the models are erroring with the strength of the system or the ridge evolution things could still change
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I think an OTS solution would be the best case scenario given current financial climate. As much as I love weather I wouldn’t want to see a Fran type situation. Thankfully that seems slim to none, but if it remains weak and elongated and sneaks south of Fl it would be horrible for whatever impacts it would have along any gulf coast state or Mexico.
 
SD said:
If you notice on the 0z euro the heat ridge has moved west to near the 4 corners allowing the Bermuda ridge to pop back up and its a legitimate threatView attachment 121510

Until fiona stops out running its convection, shear decreases and it clears the islands I wouldn't put a ton of stock in mile to mile run to run changes and differences in the ops. The 6z euro changed 21mb with the system at 90hrs vs the 0z. It's volatile right now
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Agreed. Until there are definite signs that the shear is gonna relax sooner than later, you would have to favor the more westerly solutions. At this point, really all options are on the table
 
Chazwin said:
Agreed. Until there are definite signs that the shear is gonna relax sooner than later, you would have to favor the more westerly solutions. At this point, really all options are on the table
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Honestly as I said earlier, lean toward the more sheared solution. I can’t count how many times I’ve seen the TUTT not move as modeled.
 
Arcc said:
Honestly as I said earlier, lean toward the more sheared solution. I can’t count how many times I’ve seen the TUTT not move as modeled.
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The NWS has people way more versed and a whole lot smarter than me but the initial track keeps shifting west and their forecast goes further North. It was across PR 2 days ago now it’s across eastern to central DR. Sheared and not close to vertically stacked? I’ll still follow their guidance but I don’t understand it.
 
Arcc said:
Honestly as I said earlier, lean toward the more sheared solution. I can’t count how many times I’ve seen the TUTT not move as modeled.
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On the second hand, if the trend continues on the Euro of the big 50/50 low strengthening and moving slower(which is nearly always the case with modeling), it could draw even a weak system OTS.
 
We will have a point of reference coming up as the euro has Fiona going over the SW point of PR and into the passage mostly missing Hispaniola higher mountains. If this due west and slightly further south position changes that then we will see if there's any change to the model thinking.
 
Tornadocane said:
I agree. This one could Rapidly Intensify in 6 hours from now.
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Yup they just pulled the trigger and are mentioning RI in the discussion

The upper-level environment over Fiona has improved, and deep-layer
shear is expected to be light to moderate for the next several
days. In fact, along with a favorable thermodynamic environment,
the Rapid Intensification Indices have increased, and now show a
1-in-3 chance of a 30-kt increase over the next 24 hours.
 
Brent said:
Yup they just pulled the trigger and are mentioning RI in the discussion

The upper-level environment over Fiona has improved, and deep-layer
shear is expected to be light to moderate for the next several
days. In fact, along with a favorable thermodynamic environment,
the Rapid Intensification Indices have increased, and now show a
1-in-3 chance of a 30-kt increase over the next 24 hours.
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Should eliminate the southern solution set if this happens.
 
Hurricane and forecast to be a majora7421685-3ddc-4d08-b29a-ac57f5e28c64.jpeg

Once it clears Hispaniola tomorrow Bermuda appears to be only real land threat 115624.png
 
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