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Tropical Hurricane Fiona

Snowfan

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Just designated this morning.
1. Central Tropical Atlantic:
Conventional and Low-earth orbit satellite data indicate that
showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
about midway between the west coast of Africa and the Windward
Islands have increased and become better organized since yesterday
afternoon. Further development of this system is possible and a
tropical depression could form over the next several days while it
generally moves westward to west-northwestward over the central
tropical Atlantic and approaches the Leeward Islands on Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
 

Taylor C

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Check out the hard north and out to sea ensemble members.
 

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Shaggy

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The 06Z GFS op run is still lackluster but there was a huge increase in the 96 hr GEFS so far for development over the NE islands.
 

Brent

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Special Message from NHC Issued 14 Sep 2022 14:42 UTC
NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Depression Seven, located about 800 miles east of the Leeward Islands, at 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC).
 

Brent

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NHC doubts this makes it out of the Caribbean at this point

After the system moves into the eastern Caribbean, the
westerly shear is forecast to increase somewhat and the global
models suggest that the system could struggle to maintain its
closed circulation after that time. 0_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png
 

metwannabe

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Trough kicks it out 11th hour... fun stuff

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_41.png
 

SD

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Not the easiest one to pin down. Has the characteristics of the typical stronger system gets hooked into the trough and exits stage right but that's assuming it doesn't shoot due west or even WSW through D5 which brings it near or south of the shredder and changes things.
 

Shaggy

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Not the easiest one to pin down. Has the characteristics of the typical stronger system gets hooked into the trough and exits stage right but that's assuming it doesn't shoot due west or even WSW through D5 which brings it near or south of the shredder and changes things.
That new convective burst could also facilitate some more northerly short term if it tugs the LLC under it. Lots of moving parts with this one starting out
 

smast16

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Not the easiest one to pin down. Has the characteristics of the typical stronger system gets hooked into the trough and exits stage right but that's assuming it doesn't shoot due west or even WSW through D5 which brings it near or south of the shredder and changes things.
Or center relocations / reformations due to shear and land interaction with Hispaniola and PR.
 

SimeonNC

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So is it crazy to feel that if TD 7 does go right through Hispaniola and then Cuba that it might not even survive?

I'm just a hobbyist so feel free to disregard anything I say lol.

Edit: I just saw Brent's post lol.
 

Brent

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So is it crazy to feel that if TD 7 does go right through Hispaniola and then Cuba that it might not even survive?

I'm just a hobbyist so feel free to disregard anything I say lol.

Edit: I just saw Brent's post lol.

If it can avoid Hispaniola it might have a shot but I feel like if it's up there it'll definitely recurve probably barring something wacky kind of like Earl

It'd be more interesting if it got south of Hispaniola that would really increase the threat to the US imo
 

Taylor C

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The Australian, NAVGEM, and CMA models show an obvious difference than the EURO, CMC, GFS in that there is more short term deepening of the surface low pressure.
 

Brent

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We have Fiona


Tropical Storm Fiona Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
945 PM AST Wed Sep 14 2022

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...

Satellite data indicate that the depression has strengthened to a
tropical storm with maximum winds estimated to be near 50 mph (85
km/h). This will be incoporated in the next advisory that will be
released before 11 pm AST (0300 UTC).
 

Downeastnc

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Not bad all things considered.....still way tilted....and the LLC seems rather strong so it might be really slow to reorganize.

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