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Tropical Hurricane Fiona

The LLC is now completely removed from the deep convection. A downgrade to a TD seems likely to me once recon gets a look this afternoon.
 
Gfs is stringer earlier so it's not surprising it is turning faster and getting caught by the weakness. Cmc is weaker and west. Just have to wait and see how strong it is in 2 to 3 days in order to see which idea was right
 
Shaggy said:
Ascat disagrees
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Ehh on visible it's pretty decoupled at this point with the llc about 2-3 degrees west of the mlc and convection. Pretty important part of the life cycle now imo between the llc or mlc winning out and the eventual track. If the llc wins and the mlc dies off the westward cmc suite has a chance to be correct. If the mlc grabs the llc and pulls it back or the llc spins down and a new llc reforms back under the mlc a strong solution like the gfs may verify
 
11 am NHC and 12z intensity
Looks like NHC splitting the difference in the models.
 

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SD said:
Ehh on visible it's pretty decoupled at this point with the llc about 2-3 degrees west of the mlc and convection. Pretty important part of the life cycle now imo between the llc or mlc winning out and the eventual track. If the llc wins and the mlc dies off the westward cmc suite has a chance to be correct. If the mlc grabs the llc and pulls it back or the llc spins down and a new llc reforms back under the mlc a strong solution like the gfs may verify
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Yeah not to sound cliche here but this one will be hard to pin down until we see a clear trend on intensity.
 
SD said:
Euro is going to be a US may run the EC
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Just coming on here to say this, it's weaker earlier, further south before finally starting to get it's act together and come up through the Bahamas. Very close to Fl @216

edit: as a weak system, looks like TS strength
 
ec-fast_mslp_uv850_seus_10.png
 
GFS rides just offshore Lookout to Hatteras as a Cat3/4...would wreck the OBX but nothing much in NC probably west of Hwy 17.....very classic near miss for the OBX, something like that but 100 miles further west then up the coast would be worse case for this track type....very Floyd/Bertha/Irene etc....

1663281488821.png
 
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