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Tropical Hurricane Fiona

8 am update, this part of the track is fairly stable, all models pretty much agree.... it's after this things gon get interesting or not

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I believe the many of differences between the GFS and ECMWF that still exist have to do with the shear that is keeping Fiona in check. The ECMWF keeps the shear going a little longer resulting in a weaker storm and more westerly track. The GFS relaxes the shear sooner and Fiona gets more time to strengthen resulting in the quicker right turn out to sea. Have any reconnaissance missions flown or are scheduled to fly into Fiona yet?
 
Still very lopsided as the western part of the LLC still exposed but you're right, it is fighting and continues to have thunderstorm blowups right over the eastern edge of the LLC. This thing would take off in a hurry if shear relaxed and of course would also rocket ots. Still long ways to go with this one though as it continues to move west at a pretty good clip
Something people need to consider with sheared storms like this are center reformations under the deeper convection. A Center reformation a 100 miles to the east would have a large impact on the path of the storm.

This is all based on her surviving her date intact with the Dominican Shredder.
 
Something people need to consider with sheared storms like this are center reformations under the deeper convection. A Center reformation a 100 miles to the east would have a large impact on the path of the storm.

This is all based on her surviving her date intact with the Dominican Shredder.
Hurricane Irene is a classic example of a center relocation changing everything.
 
I would say the chance of center reformation right now is about zero. The high shear is probably helping it stay alive right now.
Yeah the LLC looks fairly decent and I wouldn't expect a center relocation until interaction with the big islands.
 
Yeah the LLC looks fairly decent and I wouldn't expect a center relocation until interaction with the big islands.
Gonna be interesting to see if it even survives the islands. If it does the GFS still driving home that there will be a fine line between rapid strengthening and shredded cheese. I’m gonna lean toward the cheese side. Those TUTTs NEVER move as fast as modeled.
 
Gonna be interesting to see if it even survives the islands. If it does the GFS still driving home that there will be a fine line between rapid strengthening and shredded cheese. I’m gonna lean toward the cheese side. Those TUTTs NEVER move as fast as modeled.
Still plenty of open scenarios past day 5. The euros threatening look had some gefs member support and the gfs quick recurve had some eps support. All in all the long term is still far from being decided.

Obviously the biggest risk is we get the into the SW Atlantic under better conditions and a strengthening storm gets blocked and runs the east coast. Still an eternity away in terms of pattern evolution being nailed down.
 
I get the consensus of discussing model runs for the topic of discussion. It’s been hilarious to read up on SM the run to run meteorologist who know what’s gonna happen 7 days out. The gulf to OTS.
 
Gfs is bombs away and a quicker recurve so far through 129hrs
Not saying that I know what will be the end result but how is the modeling compared to reality? How close is it to vertically stacking? How long before shear winds down? I like to model watch myself but I think it trends west. Now how far west remains to be seen if at all.
 
If you notice on the 0z euro the heat ridge has moved west to near the 4 corners allowing the Bermuda ridge to pop back up and its a legitimate threat500wh.conus (1).png

Until fiona stops out running its convection, shear decreases and it clears the islands I wouldn't put a ton of stock in mile to mile run to run changes and differences in the ops. The 6z euro changed 21mb with the system at 90hrs vs the 0z. It's volatile right now
 
Cmc is going east as well. A ridge centered over the arklatex isn't a favorable spot for a SE coast US hit and would favor OTS or Tex/Mx. Now if the models are erroring with the strength of the system or the ridge evolution things could still change
I think an OTS solution would be the best case scenario given current financial climate. As much as I love weather I wouldn’t want to see a Fran type situation. Thankfully that seems slim to none, but if it remains weak and elongated and sneaks south of Fl it would be horrible for whatever impacts it would have along any gulf coast state or Mexico.
 
If you notice on the 0z euro the heat ridge has moved west to near the 4 corners allowing the Bermuda ridge to pop back up and its a legitimate threatView attachment 121510

Until fiona stops out running its convection, shear decreases and it clears the islands I wouldn't put a ton of stock in mile to mile run to run changes and differences in the ops. The 6z euro changed 21mb with the system at 90hrs vs the 0z. It's volatile right now
Agreed. Until there are definite signs that the shear is gonna relax sooner than later, you would have to favor the more westerly solutions. At this point, really all options are on the table
 
Agreed. Until there are definite signs that the shear is gonna relax sooner than later, you would have to favor the more westerly solutions. At this point, really all options are on the table
Honestly as I said earlier, lean toward the more sheared solution. I can’t count how many times I’ve seen the TUTT not move as modeled.
 
Honestly as I said earlier, lean toward the more sheared solution. I can’t count how many times I’ve seen the TUTT not move as modeled.
The NWS has people way more versed and a whole lot smarter than me but the initial track keeps shifting west and their forecast goes further North. It was across PR 2 days ago now it’s across eastern to central DR. Sheared and not close to vertically stacked? I’ll still follow their guidance but I don’t understand it.
 
Honestly as I said earlier, lean toward the more sheared solution. I can’t count how many times I’ve seen the TUTT not move as modeled.
On the second hand, if the trend continues on the Euro of the big 50/50 low strengthening and moving slower(which is nearly always the case with modeling), it could draw even a weak system OTS.
 
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