8 am update, this part of the track is fairly stable, all models pretty much agree.... it's after this things gon get interesting or not
Noticed several members of the GeFS have that euro look with a NW move.wbt approaching the coast before getting a second kick just missing the obx8 am update, this part of the track is fairly stable, all models pretty much agree.... it's after this things gon get interesting or not
Something people need to consider with sheared storms like this are center reformations under the deeper convection. A Center reformation a 100 miles to the east would have a large impact on the path of the storm.Still very lopsided as the western part of the LLC still exposed but you're right, it is fighting and continues to have thunderstorm blowups right over the eastern edge of the LLC. This thing would take off in a hurry if shear relaxed and of course would also rocket ots. Still long ways to go with this one though as it continues to move west at a pretty good clip
Hurricane Irene is a classic example of a center relocation changing everything.Something people need to consider with sheared storms like this are center reformations under the deeper convection. A Center reformation a 100 miles to the east would have a large impact on the path of the storm.
This is all based on her surviving her date intact with the Dominican Shredder.
Yeah the LLC looks fairly decent and I wouldn't expect a center relocation until interaction with the big islands.I would say the chance of center reformation right now is about zero. The high shear is probably helping it stay alive right now.
Gonna be interesting to see if it even survives the islands. If it does the GFS still driving home that there will be a fine line between rapid strengthening and shredded cheese. I’m gonna lean toward the cheese side. Those TUTTs NEVER move as fast as modeled.Yeah the LLC looks fairly decent and I wouldn't expect a center relocation until interaction with the big islands.
Still plenty of open scenarios past day 5. The euros threatening look had some gefs member support and the gfs quick recurve had some eps support. All in all the long term is still far from being decided.Gonna be interesting to see if it even survives the islands. If it does the GFS still driving home that there will be a fine line between rapid strengthening and shredded cheese. I’m gonna lean toward the cheese side. Those TUTTs NEVER move as fast as modeled.
Not saying that I know what will be the end result but how is the modeling compared to reality? How close is it to vertically stacking? How long before shear winds down? I like to model watch myself but I think it trends west. Now how far west remains to be seen if at all.Gfs is bombs away and a quicker recurve so far through 129hrs
I think an OTS solution would be the best case scenario given current financial climate. As much as I love weather I wouldn’t want to see a Fran type situation. Thankfully that seems slim to none, but if it remains weak and elongated and sneaks south of Fl it would be horrible for whatever impacts it would have along any gulf coast state or Mexico.Cmc is going east as well. A ridge centered over the arklatex isn't a favorable spot for a SE coast US hit and would favor OTS or Tex/Mx. Now if the models are erroring with the strength of the system or the ridge evolution things could still change
Agreed. Until there are definite signs that the shear is gonna relax sooner than later, you would have to favor the more westerly solutions. At this point, really all options are on the tableIf you notice on the 0z euro the heat ridge has moved west to near the 4 corners allowing the Bermuda ridge to pop back up and its a legitimate threatView attachment 121510
Until fiona stops out running its convection, shear decreases and it clears the islands I wouldn't put a ton of stock in mile to mile run to run changes and differences in the ops. The 6z euro changed 21mb with the system at 90hrs vs the 0z. It's volatile right now
Honestly as I said earlier, lean toward the more sheared solution. I can’t count how many times I’ve seen the TUTT not move as modeled.Agreed. Until there are definite signs that the shear is gonna relax sooner than later, you would have to favor the more westerly solutions. At this point, really all options are on the table
The NWS has people way more versed and a whole lot smarter than me but the initial track keeps shifting west and their forecast goes further North. It was across PR 2 days ago now it’s across eastern to central DR. Sheared and not close to vertically stacked? I’ll still follow their guidance but I don’t understand it.Honestly as I said earlier, lean toward the more sheared solution. I can’t count how many times I’ve seen the TUTT not move as modeled.
On the second hand, if the trend continues on the Euro of the big 50/50 low strengthening and moving slower(which is nearly always the case with modeling), it could draw even a weak system OTS.Honestly as I said earlier, lean toward the more sheared solution. I can’t count how many times I’ve seen the TUTT not move as modeled.