BHS1975
Member
If the shear relaxes at all this thing will blow up.
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Tropical Hurricane Fiona
- Thread starter Snowfan
- Start date
It's remarkable how many of these systems hug the contour of the coastline as the trough works in just in the nick of time.
Henry2326
Member
8 pm NHC
Downeastnc
Member
Yep, and how just a few miles means a big difference with impacts in NC especially....but it does seem like the ridges breaks down just enough to keep many of these offshore.....that said NC like Sept hurricanes with a F name.....Fran, Floyd, Florence.
Taylor C
Member
I’m personally following the more south and west guidance. The 18z tropical and GEFS went this way. This is in line with the CMC and EURO model.
weather bubba
Member
It's funny you mentioned the F factor and North Carolina. I just got off the phone with a buddy of mine who loves watching the weather as I do and he brought up the fact that storms that begin with F like visiting North Carolina. Fiona will have to be watched in the coming days not just for North Carolina but the entire east coast. If the latest GFS run were to pan out it would bring the first Category 4 storm to hit the Carolina coast since Hazel in 1954 over the Outer Banks.
Brick Tamland
Member
Thought this one was going out to sea, but just saw Mike Maze at WRAL say in Facebook that the latest models have shifted it west some. And of course you always have to watch the F storms in NC.
not going to get too up in arms about this, seems like ridging is too shoddy for this thing not to gain latitude in the case it strengthens more than forecast. also seems like if it stays weak it's just going to get grated by the islands. i think isaias (spelling?) from two years ago is the worst case scenario.
then again, it is the middle of september and the synoptic picture will remain murky as the models digest the impact of recurving WPAC storms. so we'll see
then again, it is the middle of september and the synoptic picture will remain murky as the models digest the impact of recurving WPAC storms. so we'll see
The 18z GFS is very interesting, should that scenario occur; there is a fine line between rapid strengthening and rapid weakening.
It really depends on how the system does in the few days. Depending on how strong the system is in a few days, it could make a big difference in where it goes after D4.
Brent
Member
GFS is way east and much stronger
Looks like it’s stronger storm, more East track, like the GFS. VS
Weaker storm , more west track, like Euro!
A model showdown! I’m riding the GFS train
I think this fights to stay a TS all the way to the islands. Shear looks rough
Shaggy
Member
Euro would have been threatening the coast if it went out past 240 hours. That's still an eternity away in terms of weather.
lexxnchloe
Member
Euro and GFS getting closer together.
Shaggy
Member
Yeah the gfs did a similar West turn a few runs ago so that's something the models are waffling on so we wait and see.
The GIV missions will be starting In a few days I'm sure
Shaggy
Member
At first quick glance through 120hrs the GEFS has more members weaker in Bahamas versus 00Z.
Thor
Member
3 run trend
Fiona is doing a better job of fighting off the westerly shear this AM. Yesterday, I really thought it had decoupled so much it may have never recovered.
Still very lopsided as the western part of the LLC still exposed but you're right, it is fighting and continues to have thunderstorm blowups right over the eastern edge of the LLC. This thing would take off in a hurry if shear relaxed and of course would also rocket ots. Still long ways to go with this one though as it continues to move west at a pretty good clip