BHS1975
Member
If the shear relaxes at all this thing will blow up.
It's remarkable how many of these systems hug the contour of the coastline as the trough works in just in the nick of time.GFS rides just offshore Lookout to Hatteras as a Cat3/4...would wreck the OBX but nothing much in NC probably west of Hwy 17.....very classic near miss for the OBX, something like that but 100 miles further west then up the coast would be worse case for this track type....very Floyd/Bertha/Irene etc....
View attachment 121482
It's remarkable how many of these systems hug the contour of the coastline as the trough works in just in the nick of time.
It's funny you mentioned the F factor and North Carolina. I just got off the phone with a buddy of mine who loves watching the weather as I do and he brought up the fact that storms that begin with F like visiting North Carolina. Fiona will have to be watched in the coming days not just for North Carolina but the entire east coast. If the latest GFS run were to pan out it would bring the first Category 4 storm to hit the Carolina coast since Hazel in 1954 over the Outer Banks.Yep, and how just a few miles means a big difference with impacts in NC especially....but it does seem like the ridges breaks down just enough to keep many of these offshore.....that said NC like Sept hurricanes with a F name.....Fran, Floyd, Florence.
Looks like it’s stronger storm, more East track, like the GFS. VSGFS is way east and much strongerView attachment 121490
Euro and GFS getting closer together.Euro would have been threatening the coast if it went out past 240 hours. That's still an eternity away in terms of weather.
Yeah the gfs did a similar West turn a few runs ago so that's something the models are waffling on so we wait and see.Euro and GFS getting closer together.
Still very lopsided as the western part of the LLC still exposed but you're right, it is fighting and continues to have thunderstorm blowups right over the eastern edge of the LLC. This thing would take off in a hurry if shear relaxed and of course would also rocket ots. Still long ways to go with this one though as it continues to move west at a pretty good clipFiona is doing a better job of fighting off the westerly shear this AM. Yesterday, I really thought it had decoupled so much it may have never recovered.