• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Tropical Hurricane Fiona

SimeonNC said:
So is it crazy to feel that if TD 7 does go right through Hispaniola and then Cuba that it might not even survive?

I'm just a hobbyist so feel free to disregard anything I say lol.

Edit: I just saw Brent's post lol.
Click to expand...

If it can avoid Hispaniola it might have a shot but I feel like if it's up there it'll definitely recurve probably barring something wacky kind of like Earl

It'd be more interesting if it got south of Hispaniola that would really increase the threat to the US imo
 
SD said:
18z gfs is going to make a run at the SE coast
Click to expand...

Close.....but no cigar.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_40.png
 
The Australian, NAVGEM, and CMA models show an obvious difference than the EURO, CMC, GFS in that there is more short term deepening of the surface low pressure.
 
We have Fiona


Tropical Storm Fiona Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
945 PM AST Wed Sep 14 2022

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...

Satellite data indicate that the depression has strengthened to a
tropical storm with maximum winds estimated to be near 50 mph (85
km/h). This will be incoporated in the next advisory that will be
released before 11 pm AST (0300 UTC).
 
Not bad all things considered.....still way tilted....and the LLC seems rather strong so it might be really slow to reorganize.

dc756d3c-a508-41d5-a848-81b036daaf54 (1).jpg
 
GFS definitely a clear recurve it appears. I think the strengthening tonight definitely makes it more likely
 
FallsLake said:
Yep, eventual path is still up in the air. 6z GFS came in closer. But it's still so far out the storm could recurve, go into the gulf, or not even develop. Here's day 10 on the 6z GFS:
View attachment 121459
Click to expand...
The high is pretty transient and doesn't lock into place so we get a step west before recurve. Not sire we see that blocking high last long enough to get it to the coast unless something slows that high down and keeps it there longer.
 
Shaggy said:
The high is pretty transient and doesn't lock into place so we get a step west before recurve. Not sire we see that blocking high last long enough to get it to the coast unless something slows that high down and keeps it there longer.
Click to expand...
Yeah and it would be crawling west giving the high plenty of time to move out.
 
BHS1975 said:
Yeah and it would be crawling west giving the high plenty of time to move out.
Click to expand...
Yeah only way that would work is if the storm is significantly further west into the Bahamas as it makes its turn north then back west before skirting the east coast. Nothing seems to suggest that will be the case. Should be a pretty storm though
 
It seems as if the track in the cyclone-genesis has moved further south compared to yesterday. More eps members has the high fluctuating stronger and forces Fiona to move northwest faster. Meaning a curve sooner would have huge implications for the southeast. If Fiona is already north of Hispaniola while this high jog southwest occurs it will begin interacting with Fiona. This has brought more members to the idea of a more northwestern track and impacts more of Florida and Georgia. However the steering currents still are a unknown factor at this point. Nothing is off the table. At least not for the next couple of days.

379423a0fb0a757d1d2ea594345c800f.jpg
 
deltadog03 said:
getting blasted right now with W to WSW shear for sure.
Click to expand...

Yep. The LLC is displaced out from underneath the deep convection. Steering currents with a strong ridge overtop suggest this going fairly west from where it is and that would put Fiona off the south shores of the Dominican Republic in the coming days.
 
Last edited:
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top