Shaggy
Member
Suspect by the weekend we will start seeing plenty of missions over the western Atlantic to start data collection to help the models.
Ascat disagreesThe LLC is now completely removed from the deep convection. A downgrade to a TD seems likely to me once recon gets a look this afternoon.
Ehh on visible it's pretty decoupled at this point with the llc about 2-3 degrees west of the mlc and convection. Pretty important part of the life cycle now imo between the llc or mlc winning out and the eventual track. If the llc wins and the mlc dies off the westward cmc suite has a chance to be correct. If the mlc grabs the llc and pulls it back or the llc spins down and a new llc reforms back under the mlc a strong solution like the gfs may verifyAscat disagrees
Yeah not to sound cliche here but this one will be hard to pin down until we see a clear trend on intensity.Ehh on visible it's pretty decoupled at this point with the llc about 2-3 degrees west of the mlc and convection. Pretty important part of the life cycle now imo between the llc or mlc winning out and the eventual track. If the llc wins and the mlc dies off the westward cmc suite has a chance to be correct. If the mlc grabs the llc and pulls it back or the llc spins down and a new llc reforms back under the mlc a strong solution like the gfs may verify
Just coming on here to say this, it's weaker earlier, further south before finally starting to get it's act together and come up through the Bahamas. Very close to Fl @216Euro is going to be a US may run the EC
Looks like landfall at D9.5 north of Miami around 990
That would be a big mess for the east coast with the pressure gradient and onshore flow along with the huge PRE that is likelyThis might wake up the TC crowd lol