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Tropical Hurricane Fiona

jeremyt

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I get the consensus of discussing model runs for the topic of discussion. It’s been hilarious to read up on SM the run to run meteorologist who know what’s gonna happen 7 days out. The gulf to OTS.
 

jeremyt

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Gfs is bombs away and a quicker recurve so far through 129hrs
Not saying that I know what will be the end result but how is the modeling compared to reality? How close is it to vertically stacking? How long before shear winds down? I like to model watch myself but I think it trends west. Now how far west remains to be seen if at all.
 

SD

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If you notice on the 0z euro the heat ridge has moved west to near the 4 corners allowing the Bermuda ridge to pop back up and its a legitimate threat 500wh.conus (1).png

Until fiona stops out running its convection, shear decreases and it clears the islands I wouldn't put a ton of stock in mile to mile run to run changes and differences in the ops. The 6z euro changed 21mb with the system at 90hrs vs the 0z. It's volatile right now
 

jeremyt

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Cmc is going east as well. A ridge centered over the arklatex isn't a favorable spot for a SE coast US hit and would favor OTS or Tex/Mx. Now if the models are erroring with the strength of the system or the ridge evolution things could still change
I think an OTS solution would be the best case scenario given current financial climate. As much as I love weather I wouldn’t want to see a Fran type situation. Thankfully that seems slim to none, but if it remains weak and elongated and sneaks south of Fl it would be horrible for whatever impacts it would have along any gulf coast state or Mexico.
 

Chazwin

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If you notice on the 0z euro the heat ridge has moved west to near the 4 corners allowing the Bermuda ridge to pop back up and its a legitimate threatView attachment 121510

Until fiona stops out running its convection, shear decreases and it clears the islands I wouldn't put a ton of stock in mile to mile run to run changes and differences in the ops. The 6z euro changed 21mb with the system at 90hrs vs the 0z. It's volatile right now
Agreed. Until there are definite signs that the shear is gonna relax sooner than later, you would have to favor the more westerly solutions. At this point, really all options are on the table
 

Arcc

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Agreed. Until there are definite signs that the shear is gonna relax sooner than later, you would have to favor the more westerly solutions. At this point, really all options are on the table
Honestly as I said earlier, lean toward the more sheared solution. I can’t count how many times I’ve seen the TUTT not move as modeled.
 

jeremyt

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Honestly as I said earlier, lean toward the more sheared solution. I can’t count how many times I’ve seen the TUTT not move as modeled.
The NWS has people way more versed and a whole lot smarter than me but the initial track keeps shifting west and their forecast goes further North. It was across PR 2 days ago now it’s across eastern to central DR. Sheared and not close to vertically stacked? I’ll still follow their guidance but I don’t understand it.
 

Arcc

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Honestly as I said earlier, lean toward the more sheared solution. I can’t count how many times I’ve seen the TUTT not move as modeled.
On the second hand, if the trend continues on the Euro of the big 50/50 low strengthening and moving slower(which is nearly always the case with modeling), it could draw even a weak system OTS.
 

Shaggy

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Shaggy

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We will have a point of reference coming up as the euro has Fiona going over the SW point of PR and into the passage mostly missing Hispaniola higher mountains. If this due west and slightly further south position changes that then we will see if there's any change to the model thinking.
 

Brent

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I agree. This one could Rapidly Intensify in 6 hours from now.

Yup they just pulled the trigger and are mentioning RI in the discussion

The upper-level environment over Fiona has improved, and deep-layer
shear is expected to be light to moderate for the next several
days. In fact, along with a favorable thermodynamic environment,
the Rapid Intensification Indices have increased, and now show a
1-in-3 chance of a 30-kt increase over the next 24 hours.
 

Rain Cold

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Yup they just pulled the trigger and are mentioning RI in the discussion

The upper-level environment over Fiona has improved, and deep-layer
shear is expected to be light to moderate for the next several
days. In fact, along with a favorable thermodynamic environment,
the Rapid Intensification Indices have increased, and now show a
1-in-3 chance of a 30-kt increase over the next 24 hours.
Should eliminate the southern solution set if this happens.
 
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