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Tropical Hurricane Fiona

The LLC is now completely removed from the deep convection. A downgrade to a TD seems likely to me once recon gets a look this afternoon.
 
Gfs is stringer earlier so it's not surprising it is turning faster and getting caught by the weakness. Cmc is weaker and west. Just have to wait and see how strong it is in 2 to 3 days in order to see which idea was right
 
Shaggy said:
Ascat disagrees
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Ehh on visible it's pretty decoupled at this point with the llc about 2-3 degrees west of the mlc and convection. Pretty important part of the life cycle now imo between the llc or mlc winning out and the eventual track. If the llc wins and the mlc dies off the westward cmc suite has a chance to be correct. If the mlc grabs the llc and pulls it back or the llc spins down and a new llc reforms back under the mlc a strong solution like the gfs may verify
 
11 am NHC and 12z intensity
Looks like NHC splitting the difference in the models.
 

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SD said:
Ehh on visible it's pretty decoupled at this point with the llc about 2-3 degrees west of the mlc and convection. Pretty important part of the life cycle now imo between the llc or mlc winning out and the eventual track. If the llc wins and the mlc dies off the westward cmc suite has a chance to be correct. If the mlc grabs the llc and pulls it back or the llc spins down and a new llc reforms back under the mlc a strong solution like the gfs may verify
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Yeah not to sound cliche here but this one will be hard to pin down until we see a clear trend on intensity.
 
SD said:
Euro is going to be a US may run the EC
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Just coming on here to say this, it's weaker earlier, further south before finally starting to get it's act together and come up through the Bahamas. Very close to Fl @216

edit: as a weak system, looks like TS strength
 
ec-fast_mslp_uv850_seus_10.png
 
GFS rides just offshore Lookout to Hatteras as a Cat3/4...would wreck the OBX but nothing much in NC probably west of Hwy 17.....very classic near miss for the OBX, something like that but 100 miles further west then up the coast would be worse case for this track type....very Floyd/Bertha/Irene etc....

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Downeastnc said:
GFS rides just offshore Lookout to Hatteras as a Cat3/4...would wreck the OBX but nothing much in NC probably west of Hwy 17.....very classic near miss for the OBX, something like that but 100 miles further west then up the coast would be worse case for this track type....very Floyd/Bertha/Irene etc....

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It's remarkable how many of these systems hug the contour of the coastline as the trough works in just in the nick of time.
 
Rain Cold said:
It's remarkable how many of these systems hug the contour of the coastline as the trough works in just in the nick of time.
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Yep, and how just a few miles means a big difference with impacts in NC especially....but it does seem like the ridges breaks down just enough to keep many of these offshore.....that said NC like Sept hurricanes with a F name.....Fran, Floyd, Florence.
 
Downeastnc said:
Yep, and how just a few miles means a big difference with impacts in NC especially....but it does seem like the ridges breaks down just enough to keep many of these offshore.....that said NC like Sept hurricanes with a F name.....Fran, Floyd, Florence.
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It's funny you mentioned the F factor and North Carolina. I just got off the phone with a buddy of mine who loves watching the weather as I do and he brought up the fact that storms that begin with F like visiting North Carolina. Fiona will have to be watched in the coming days not just for North Carolina but the entire east coast. If the latest GFS run were to pan out it would bring the first Category 4 storm to hit the Carolina coast since Hazel in 1954 over the Outer Banks.
 
not going to get too up in arms about this, seems like ridging is too shoddy for this thing not to gain latitude in the case it strengthens more than forecast. also seems like if it stays weak it's just going to get grated by the islands. i think isaias (spelling?) from two years ago is the worst case scenario.

then again, it is the middle of september and the synoptic picture will remain murky as the models digest the impact of recurving WPAC storms. so we'll see
 
Euro would have been threatening the coast if it went out past 240 hours. That's still an eternity away in terms of weather.
 
Fiona is doing a better job of fighting off the westerly shear this AM. Yesterday, I really thought it had decoupled so much it may have never recovered.
 
Wild Weather Monger said:
Fiona is doing a better job of fighting off the westerly shear this AM. Yesterday, I really thought it had decoupled so much it may have never recovered.
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Still very lopsided as the western part of the LLC still exposed but you're right, it is fighting and continues to have thunderstorm blowups right over the eastern edge of the LLC. This thing would take off in a hurry if shear relaxed and of course would also rocket ots. Still long ways to go with this one though as it continues to move west at a pretty good clip
 
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